Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Apr 12 2022 - 12Z Thu Apr 14 2022

...Major winter storm to bring heavy snow and blizzard conditions to parts
of the Northern Plains through Wednesday night...

...Threats for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding exist across
eastern portions of the Central/Southern Plains into the Mississippi
Valley through Wednesday...

...Dangerous fire weather conditions for the Southern/Central High Plains
through mid-week...

A large storm system that was moving into the western U.S. Monday
afternoon will be responsible for a period of very active weather across
many areas of the lower 48 into the middle of the week. A strong low
pressure system is forecast to track from the Central High Plains this
morning into the Upper Mississippi River Valley tonight as heavy snow
spreads out into the north-central U.S. A combination of heavy snow and
strong wind gusts will produce blizzard conditions with significant
blowing and drifting of snow from the eastern slopes of the Northern
Rockies across the Northern Plains. A long duration snowfall event
spanning 1-2 days is likely to generate widespread 1-2 feet of
accumulation from eastern Montana into western and northern North Dakota
with potential for 2-3 feet in some locations before the storm ends.
Travel will be very difficult to impossible and there is potential power
outages and tree damage. Significant impacts to young livestock are also
possible.

Out ahead of the storm system, a large portion of the central U.S. will be
under a threat for severe weather outbreak today, with the Storm
Prediction Center forecasting Enhanced Risks of severe thunderstorms for
central Texas and eastern Nebraska into Iowa. Flash flooding will be
possible Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning from the storms, with a
focused threat extending from the Sabine River Valley into the lower
Mississippi Valley. The enhanced threats for severe thunderstorms and
flash flooding shift slightly eastward on Wednesday into parts of the
western Tennessee/Ohio River Valleys.

Behind a dryline, ongoing drought conditions combined with widespread
sustained winds of 30-40 mph and gusts over 50 mph will set up an
Extremely Critical risk for fire weather conditions from West Texas into
the Central Plains today. A significant fire weather outbreak will be
possible as a result, with favorable fire weather conditions continuing
into Wednesday for some of the same areas.

Temperatures are forecast to be well below average across the western U.S.
(15 to 30 degrees below average) through Wednesday while warm southerly
flow will transport well above average temperatures into the central and
eastern U.S. into mid-week. High temperatures from the Great Plains to
portions of the eastern U.S. are likely to be 10-25 degrees above average.

Kebede/Otto


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php