Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 13 2022 - 12Z Fri Apr 15 2022

...Major winter storm to bring heavy snow and blizzard conditions to parts
of the Northern Plains through Thursday...

...Significant severe weather and some flash flooding possible today from
the Lower Mississippi Valley north into the Midwest...

...Dangerous fire weather conditions for the Southern/Central High
Plains...

...Active period continues across Pacific Northwest as low elevation rain
and mountain snow impact the region...

A deep upper-level trough will rotate a potent surface low pressure system
through the eastern half of the country through Friday. Yesterday's major
winter storm will continue today over parts of North Dakota where an
additional 6-12 inches of snow may fall by Friday morning. The combination
of heavy snow with strong/gusty winds will mean Blizzard conditions are
likely with blowing or drifting snow and dangerous low visibility for this
area through Thursday. Travel will remain difficult to impossible, and
widespread power outages and tree damage are expected. Significant impacts
to livestock are also possible. Temperatures will continue to drop
significantly on the backside of this system, with high temperatures
likely to remain 20-30 degrees below average over the Northern
Rockies/Plains today and Thursday. Temperatures out ahead of the Winter
storm will be well above average today and Thursday with highs likely to
be 15-25 degrees warmer than normal.

Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms are likely within the warm sector
of the dynamic winter storm today. Thunderstorms and heavy rain are
expected to focus along a strong cold front that is forecast to sweep
across the Mississippi Valley today. The heaviest rainfall capable of
producing flash flooding is likely to occur from southeastern Louisiana to
southern Michigan, where a Slight Risk of Flash Flooding is in effect.
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing several tornadoes, strong
significant damaging winds and large to very large hail will likely occur
anywhere from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Upper Midwest today. The
Storm Prediction Center issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of Severe
Thunderstorms over parts of the Lower/Middle Mississippi and Tennessee
Valley. Major cities like Memphis and Little Rock are under this moderate
risk.

Very dry and windy conditions paired with an existing drought, will yield
a threat for fires over portions of the Southern Plains today. The cycling
of an upper-level low will continue to drive moisture into the Pacific
Northwest through Thursday. Heavy snow for the southern Cascades and
northern Sierra as well as heavy rain for portions of coastal northern
California will persist during this period.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php