Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 14 2022 - 00Z Sat Apr 16 2022

...Major winter storm continues for parts of the Northern Plains through
Thursday...

...Isolated severe weather and flooding possible from New England to the
Gulf Coast...

...Chilly, sub-freezing, well below normal temperatures for the Central
and Northern Plains...

...Active period continues from the Rockies to the Pacific Northwest as
low elevation rain and mountain snow impact the region...

A deep upper-level trough will rotate a potent surface low pressure system
through the eastern half of the country through Friday. Tuesday's major
winter storm will continue for the Northern Plains, tapering off first in
eastern Montana by Wednesday evening and North Dakota through the day
Thursday. A few more inches of snow are possible, bringing storm total
accumulations to around 15-20 inches, with isolated higher amounts. A
Blizzard Warning remains in effect from eastern Montana into western and
central North Dakota, where the combination of snow with strong/gusty
winds will mean blizzard conditions are likely with blowing or drifting
snow and dangerously low visibility. Travel will remain difficult to
impossible. Snow showers will also overspread portions of the Red River
Valley from eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota Thursday, where
around a couple inches of snow is forecast.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will persist within the warm sector
of the dynamic winter storm as a cold front continues eastward Thursday
and moves from the Midwest to the East Coast. Isolated instances of severe
weather and flash flooding are possible. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms for portions of
the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England Thursday as gusty winds
are possible with the strongest thunderstorms. There is also a Marginal
Risk (level 1/4) of heavy rain for portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic
as well as the Central Gulf Coast. Storms along the cold front will likely
move through quickly, but given the potential for heavy downpours over
saturated soils, isolated instances of flooding may still be possible. 

Behind the cold front, very chilly, below normal temperatures will
continue. Lows Thursday and Friday morning will be below freezing for most
of the Central and Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Freeze warnings are
in effect for portions of northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the 50s and 60s for the Central
Plains and around freezing for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Further south in the Southern Plains, temperatures will moderate much more
quickly as warmer air returns northward, with highs in the 70s and 80s
Thursday reaching into the 90s for portions of western Texas on Friday.
Dry and windy conditions will continue in the lee of the Rockies across
portions of the Central and Southern High Plains Thursday. While the
wildfire risk will be lower compared to previous days, the Storm
Prediction Center has still highlighted an Elevated Risk for fire weather.


A lingering stationary front across the Northern and Central Rockies and
through the northern Great Basin as well as a slow moving Pacific storm
system approaching the West Coast will drive the chance for coastal rain
and higher elevation/interior snow showers through the forecast period
(Friday evening). Any snow accumulations should generally remain light
outside of the mountains. Heavier snow is forecast for the southern
Cascades in Oregon overnight Wednesday as well as in the northern Sierra
Nevada in California and Teton Range in Wyoming Thursday. Rainfall should
also remain relatively light, except for some higher totals of over an
inch possible along the coast of Northern California through Thursday.

Putnam/Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php