Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 15 2022 - 00Z Sun Apr 17 2022

...Unsettled pattern continues in the South with isolated instances of
severe weather and flash flooding possible...

...Contrasting temperatures dominate Plains as northern tier remains
chilly and Southern Plains heat up...

...Active period continues from the Rockies to the Pacific Northwest as
low elevation rain and mountain snow impact the region...

An unsettled weather pattern with showers and thunderstorms will persist
throughout the South and along the Gulf Coast as one cold front moving
through the region slows and eventually meanders back north as a warm
front and a secondary cold front approaches the region from the north.
Scattered storms are most likely during the day Friday across the Florida
Peninsula and for portions of the western Gulf Coast. Stronger, more
widespread storms are expected Friday evening into Saturday across the
region. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe storms Friday evening for portions of northeastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas as part of a broader Marginal Risk (level 1/5) from
Oklahoma east to the Mid-South. Large hail will be the main concern, but
some instances of damaging winds and an isolated tornado are also
possible. A broad Marginal Risk is also in place to the south from eastern
Texas to the Central Gulf Coast Saturday as storms will continue to pose
some risk for large hail and damaging winds. In addition, there is a
Marginal Risk for heavy rain and isolated instances of flooding Saturday.
Storms may have a tendency to cluster and train over the same areas in
vicinity of the front, leading to hourly rain totals of 2 inches, locally
as high as 4 inches.

While snow will taper off for the Northern Plains Thursday evening after a
historic blizzard, well below average temperatures will continue for much
of the Central and Northern Plains as frigid air remains in place behind a
cold front on the back side of the departing storm. Temperatures will be
between 20-30 degrees below average, with below freezing highs expected
Friday and Saturday and lows dipping into the single digits. In contrast,
south of the front in the Southern Plains, high temperatures Friday will
be up to 10 to 20 degrees above average, with mid-80s to the lower 90s
forecast across western portions of Oklahoma and Texas. Highs on Saturday
may even approach 100 along the border in southern Texas Saturday while
Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle cool off significantly into the 60s as
the cold front begins to move south. The warm and dry weather across the
Southern High Plains as well as portions of the Southwest have prompted an
Elevated Risk of fire weather from the Storm Prediction Center for Friday.

A meandering stationary front in the West and arriving surface low
pressure system will generate additional, scattered coastal/low elevation
rain showers as well as mountain snow for much of the Pacific Northwest
and Northern Rockies Friday.  A more potent upper-level wave will approach
the West Coast Friday evening, promoting more widespread, heavier
precipitation into the day Saturday.  Portions of northern coastal
California are forecast to receive 1-2 inches of rain with several inches
of snow likely for higher elevations, particularly portions of the
northern Sierra Nevada, southern Cascades, and Sawtooth Range of Idaho. In
addition to the precipitation, temperatures will also be quite chilly to
the north of the front. Various freeze-related advisories are in effect
for coastal and interior portions of southwestern Oregon and northwestern
California as temperatures dip as low as the mid-20s Friday morning.

Putnam

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php