Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 15 2022 - 12Z Sun Apr 17 2022

...Unsettled pattern continues in the South with isolated instances of
severe weather and flash flooding possible...

...Accumulating snowfall expected from the Sierra Nevada to the Northern
Rockies....

...Critical fire weather in the southern High Plains today; contrasting
temperatures this weekend with abnormally hot conditions in the South and
chilly conditions in the North...

The weather pattern this upcoming weekend in the Lower 48 features
abnormally warm temperatures across the South and more winter-like
conditions in the North, especially in the northern Rockies/Plains. In
between these two clashing air-masses is where the most active weather is
forecast to transpire. Focusing initially on the Mid-South, areas of
showers and thunderstorms will envelope the region out ahead of a wave of
low pressure in the Southern Plains and a warm front lifting north through
the Lower Mississippi valley Friday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for parts of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas where large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible
Friday afternoon and evening. There is also a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall from the Ozarks on east into the heart of the Mid-South where
localized flash flooding may occur. By Saturday, the cold front pushes
through the East and the Deep South, with the latter having the best odds
for witnessing strong-to-severe thunderstorms. The SPC has an expansive
Marginal Risk area stretching from the Rio Grande on east to the Southeast
Coast. There is also a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall in the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Saturday. While severe storms are less likely, a few
thunderstorms could transpire along the I-95 corridor in the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic as the cold front traverses these regions Saturday afternoon.

Farther north, a dome of Canadian high pressure settles in over the
northern High Plains today and into Saturday. Morning lows are forecast to
be in the single digits and highs struggling to break the freezing mark in
parts of Montana and the Dakotas, making it feel more like mid-February
rather than mid-April. There are also much below normal temperatures in
the Pacific Northwest with daily temperature anomalies around 15 degrees
below normal both Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, a Pacific storm system
approaching the West Coast this afternoon will usher in periods of
valley/coastal rain and mountain snow to northern California, the Sierra
Nevada, and southern Oregon tonight. As the storm tracks inland on
Saturday, the shield of precipitation will push into the northern Rockies
where accumulating snowfall is expected. In terms of snowfall through
early Easter Sunday morning, the heaviest totals will be found in the
Sierra Nevada and the Shastas of northern California where snow totals
surpassing a foot are likely in the higher elevations. The Cascades could
pick up light accumulations while the Bitterroots may receive up to a foot
of snow in spots.

Elsewhere, favorable fire weather conditions remain in place across the
central and southern High Plains today. A Critical Risk area has been
issued for southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the farthest
north and west portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Farther
south, South Texas becomes quite hot by Saturday with daytime highs
approaching the century mark in the Rio Grande Valley. Easter Sunday in
the South will feel more like May with day time highs in the 80s and 90s
from Florida and the central Gulf Coast to the Southern Plains and
Southwest. Across the North, temperatures are forecast to feel more like
March with highs in the 40s and 50s from the Northwest and Midwest to the
Northeast.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php