Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 PM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 17 2022 - 00Z Tue Apr 19 2022

...Heavy snow for the Northern Plains...

...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms for portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast and Southeast through Sunday...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
Rockies and the Central High Plains...

By Monday evening, low pressure over the Northern Rockies will slowly move
eastward to the Great Lakes. On Saturday evening, the system will produce
coastal/lower elevation rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the
Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Northern Rockies. Overnight Saturday,
the precipitation will change over to mostly all snow over the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains, as snow starts over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley. On
Sunday, heavy snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper
Mississippi Valley while continuing over parts of the Northern Rockies.
Overnight Sunday, the snow will end over the Northern Rockies as snow
develops over parts of the Upper Great Lakes. On Monday, the snow moves
into the Lower Great Lakes and parts of the Ohio Valley.

Meanwhile, an upper-level low over the Great Lakes will move off the
Northeast Coast by early Monday morning. The energy will aid in producing
lake-enhanced snow over parts of the Upper Great Lakes overnight Saturday,
moving to the Lower Great Lakes and parts of Northern New England on
Sunday. The snow and coastal rain will continue over parts of Northern New
England through Sunday evening.

Additionally, the front extending from the Northeast across the Central
Appalachians over the Central Gulf Coast into the Southern Plains moves
off most of the Eastern Seaboard by Sunday morning. The boundary lingers
over the Gulf Coast States into the Southern Plains through Sunday
evening. Rain will develop along the boundary over parts of the Northeast
to the Central Appalachians through early Sunday morning. The front will
also aid in destabilizing the atmosphere over the Southern Plains to the
Southeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast through
Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. There will also be a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms over the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast.

On Sunday, a wave of low pressure will move along the front over the Gulf
Coast States that will continue to destabilize the atmosphere over the
region. Similarly, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast Sunday
into Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. In addition, the threat of excessive rainfall will move
eastward over the Southeast on Sunday while the showers and thunderstorms
continue over the region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over the Southeast on Sunday into Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams being the most
vulnerable. Rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast on Monday.

Furthermore, late Sunday afternoon, a front over the Pacific will begin to
move onshore overnight Sunday, over the Pacific Northwest into Monday. The
system will produce coastal rain and higher elevation snow over the
Pacific Northwest and Northern California early Monday morning into Monday
afternoon.

Moreover, the SPC has issued a Critical Risk of fire weather over the
Southern Rockies through Sunday morning and over the Southern Rockies into
the Central High Plains on Sunday. The fire weather hazard is due to gusty
winds, dry fuels, and low humidity.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php