Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Valid 12Z Sun Apr 17 2022 - 12Z Tue Apr 19 2022

...March-like temperatures across the Northern Tier, heavy snow in the
Northern Plains & New England on Monday...

...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms for portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast and Southeast today and into
Monday...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
Rockies and the Central High Plains...

A distinct divide in air-masses remains in place this Easter Sunday with
abnormally warm temperatures across the South and unusually cold
temperatures in the North. There are Hard Freeze Warnings for parts of
northern California with Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories in place
across the Ohio Valley. A wave of low pressure tracking through the
northern Plains will deliver a round of heavy snow to North Dakota and
northern Minnesota today with gusty winds also leading to reduced
visibilities and drifting snow. Winter Storm Warnings are in place over
northern North Dakota where snow accumulations could surpass 8 inches in
spots. In addition to the snow, Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings
have been issued for parts of the Northern Plains and southeast Wyoming.
As the storm gradually weakens while tracking towards the Great Lakes,
light accumulations will be possible in the Great Lakes and Upper
Mississippi Valley. Farther east, a deepening area of low pressure in the
Southeast will strengthen even further as it tracks up the Eastern
Seaboard on Monday. While there remains some uncertainty regarding storm
track and intensity, confidence is growing on the likelihood of measurable
snowfall in the northern Appalachians on Monday. The latest WPC snowfall
forecast calls for a 3 to 6 inch snowstorm with locally higher totals
possible in the Catskills, Adirondacks, Berkshires, Green and White
mountains. Coastal areas of the Northeast can expect periods of rain to
envelope the Northeast coast, but gusty winds may also contribute to
terrible travel conditions and potentially downed tree limbs.

Farther south, early summer-like temperatures will be most common in the
Southern High Plains and the Southwest where daytime highs in the 80s and
90s are expected. In fact, portions of the Rio Grande Valley in South
Texas could soar as high as 100 degrees today. In the Deep South, where a
lingering frontal boundary will act as a trigger for showers and
thunderstorms, could lead to some thunderstorms becoming severe. The Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) does have a Slight Risk  over the Lower
Mississippi Valley but there is also a a Threat for severe storms from the
Rio Grande Valley to the Georgia Coast. Given antecedent soil conditions
remain quite saturated, rainfall rates exceeding 1" per hour may lead to
areas of flash flooding later today.  By Monday, the cold front associated
with a deepening cyclone along the East Coast means some light snowfall
totals are also possible in the central Appalachians. The heaviest
rainfall amounts across the country are likely to occur in the Southeast
with rainfall amounts surpassing 2 inches in some parts of the Southeast.
Drier air filtering behind the cold front and a large dome of high
pressure ushers in a shot of cooler temperatures into the Deep South for
the first half of the upcoming week.

Elsewhere, the next Pacific storm system is set to usher in another surge
of Pacific moisture, leading to both heavy snow and rain in some cases
across the Pacific Northwest early in the day on Monday. Snowfall
accumulations exceeding a foot are possible, especially in the higher
elevations of the Cascades and at lower snow levels in the Olympics. In
the southern and central High Plains, the combination of gusty winds,
parched relative humidity levels, and dry fuels have prompted the issuance
of a Critical Risk for Fire Weather this Easter Sunday. The threat for
fire weather conditions is not quite and concerning for Monday, but a pair
of Elevated Risk areas to remain in place for parts of the Midwest and the
Four Corners region.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php