Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 18 2022 - 12Z Wed Apr 20 2022

...Late season heavy snowfall to cause treacherous travel conditions in
parts of the interior Northeast late Monday into Tuesday...

...Unsettled pattern in the Pacific Northwest to produce mountain snow and
valley/coastal rain...

...Summer-like heat in the Desert Southwest; Critical Risk of fire weather
in parts of the southern Rockies and central High Plains on Tuesday...

A wave of low pressure in the Southeast this morning will track up the
Carolina coast this afternoon and strengthen off the Mid-Atlantic coast
Monday evening. It will strengthen thanks to an upper trough approaching
from the Great Lakes, which is also responsible for producing light snow
accumulations from the Upper Midwest to the eastern Great Lakes. In the
storm's warm sector, strong-to-severe thunderstorms are possible in the
Southeast, most notably along the Carolina coast and southeast Florida
where a pair of Marginal Risks have been issued by the Storm Prediction
Center. Farther north and west, temperatures are well below normal
throughout the Northeast and on west into the Nation's Heartland, as
evident from the Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Central Plains. As the storm tracks up the Eastern
Seaboard this evening, precipitation looks to fall as snow in the northern
Appalachians and will fall heavily at times. Winter Storm Watches have
been posted for parts of Upstate New York and far northeast Pennsylvania
from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon with the potential for 5 to
10 inches of snow (locally higher amounts possible) in these locations.
Treacherous travel conditions are likely in these areas along with the
potential for isolated areas of tree damage and power outages. Lake effect
snow showers will persist on the backside of the storm as it tracks
through northern New England on Tuesday and temperatures will be cold
enough to make it seem as though the calendar reads "February" and not
"April". The same can be said in the Midwest where daytime temperature
anomalies of 15 to 20 degrees below normal are expected on Tuesday.

The other region of the Lower 48 forecast to witness unsettled weather is
the Pacific Northwest as a frontal system passes overhead today and into
Monday night. Heavy mountain snow is forecast in parts of the Cascades and
Sierra Nevada where over a foot of snow is possible. Along the coasts and
in the valleys, rainfall totals over the next two days look to range
between 1-2 inches. In wake of the storm system, cooler than normal
temperatures will spread out across the Northwest while hit-or-miss rain
and snow showers pass overhead. There could be strong winds in parts of
the northern Rockies on Tuesday, which has led to the issuance of High
Wind Watches in parts of northwest Montana.

Elsewhere, more summer-like temperatures look to engulf much of the
Southwest where high temps in the mid-upper 90s will be possible in parts
of southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. High
temperature anomalies will range between 10 to 15 degrees above normal in
the Southwest and into the central Rockies. Temperatures will also warm up
dramatically in the central High Plains with highs soaring into the low
80s by Tuesday. Meanwhile, favorable fire weather conditions will stick
around in the Southwest, highlighted by a Critical Risk centered over
northern New Mexico and southeast Colorado.

Mullinax


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php