Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Apr 19 2022 - 12Z Thu Apr 21 2022

...Late season snow for the interior Northeast on Monday night through
Tuesday...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average east of the
Plains...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
Rockies...

Much of the eastern U.S. will remain mired in abnormally chilly air-mass
for mid-April through mid-week. A handful of daily record cold high and
low temperatures are forecast in parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and
Northeast today. There are also a combination of Freeze Warnings and Frost
Advisories in the Middle Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and some
portions of the Mid-Atlantic. In addition to the cold, a Nor'easter will
continue to produce periods of heavy snow in parts of the interior
Northeast this morning along with gusty winds. By the time the snow winds
down as the Nor'easter tracks farther north, snow accumulations totaling
between 6 to 12 inches are expected from northern Pennsylvania on north
into the Adirondacks. Lake effect snow downwind of Lake Erie will also
produce accumulating snowfall on the order of 4 to 8 inches in northeast
Pennsylvania and far western New York. Some pockets of measurable snowfall
is also expected in parts of the central Appalachians today where Winter
Weather Advisories have been posted. High pressure continues to build in
from the west Tuesday night and moves in over the East Coast by Wednesday,
making for a mostly dry but still relatively chilly Wednesday.

Farther west, a frontal system tracking through the northern Rockies this
morning will eject into the northern High Plains by Tuesday evening. In
its wake, areas of mountain snow will lead to pockets of 6"+ snowfall
totals in parts of the Sierra Nevada, Oregon Cascades, and the Tetons. In
the southern High Plains, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
Tuesday afternoon and evening with the best odds for severe storms in the
Texas Panhandle where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal
Risk for severe weather. As a potent upper level disturbance tracks
through the Intermountain West Tuesday night and into the northern High
Plains Wednesday morning, a strengthening surface low in the central High
Plains will become the focus of the next round of severe storms Wednesday
afternoon and evening. A Slight Risk has been issued for northeast
Oklahoma and southeast Kansas where severe hazards such as tornadoes,
large hail, and damaging winds are all possible. Periods of rain are also
likely in the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Ozarks on Wednesday where
over one inch of rain is forecast. Severe storms will also be possible in
the Pacific Northwest as the next Pacific storm system approaches the
region. Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 2 inches are expected on Wednesday in
southwest Oregon and coastal northern California. In the higher
elevations, snowfall totals as much as a foot or more are on tap in the
Shastas, Cascades, and northern Sierra Nevada.

Elsewhere, it is a busy stretch for fire weather in the Southwest and the
High Plains. Critical Risks for fire weather have been issued from Las
Vegas on east across northern Arizona and much of New Mexico. There is
also an Elevated Risk area in central Florida today, The fire weather
hazards are due to gusty winds, dry fuels, and low humidity. The more
concerning Critical Risk areas stick around in parts of the western
Nebraska and eastern Wyoming on Wednesday, as well as central and southern
New Mexico. Summer-like temperatures will be common in the Southwest today
and spread into the Southern Plains by Wednesday.

Mullinax


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php