Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 20 2022 - 12Z Fri Apr 22 2022

...Storm system to produce snow in northern Minnesota, showers throughout
the Great Lakes, and severe storms in portions of the Heartland today...

...Strong upper low to bring unsettled and cooler weather to California
and the Pacific Northwest ...

...Summer-like warmth and a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of
the Front Range, Southwest and Southern Plains through Wednesday; cooler
temps sticks around in the Northeast through Thursday...

A frontal system tracking across the North Central U.S. will be
responsible for developing an expansive shield of precipitation that
stretches from the U.S./Canada border on south into East Texas. In
northern Minnesota, precipitation is forecast to fall in the form of snow
with several inches of accumulation expected. The heaviest totals are set
to occur in the Minnesota Arrowhead where totals could surpass 8 inches.
In the Middle Mississippi Valley, showers and thunderstorms will be common
from the Middle Mississippi Valley on south into the South Central U.S..
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for eastern Oklahoma
and southeast Kansas where severe storms could produce tornadoes, damaging
wind gusts, and large hail. Some thunderstorms may also produce locally
Excessive Rainfall rates in the Ozarks, which has prompted the issuance of
a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall in northern Arkansas and southern
Missouri. The storm system will race through the Great Lakes by Thursday
morning losing its punch as it does so. Showers will be more spotty in
nature across the eastern Great Lakes and northern New York. Meanwhile, a
warm front lifting north into the Midwest and Central Plains will result
in blossoming thunderstorms across parts of the the Nation's Heartland. A
Slight Risk for severe weather has been issued for Thursday in Kansas with
a chance for storms extending as far east as the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys through Thursday night.

Farther west, a large upper level low will direct a slug of Pacific
moisture at the West Coast with periods of heavy rain and mountain snow
expected from the Pacific Northwest on south into California. By Thursday,
the heaviest precipitation becomes focused in the Sierra Nevada where
crashing snow levels will support snowfall amounts of 1 to 2 feet. Winter
Storm Warnings have been posted for the higher elevations of northern
California from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning. Showers will
reach as far south as Southern California by Thursday night and into early
Friday morning. Through early Friday morning, total precipitation amounts
of 2 to 3 inches are likely in coastal northern California, in the
Shastas, and northern Sierra Nevada. In addition to the rain and snow,
gusty winds are also on tap with Wind Advisories in place from southern
Oregon on south into the higher terrain of Southern California. This upper
low will provide a shot of cooler than normal temperatures up and down the
West Coast and eventually into the Great Basin and Desert Southwest by
week's end.

Fire weather conditions remain ripe across the Southwest, Front Range, and
southern High Plains through the end of the week. Critical Risks for fire
weather include portions of New Mexico, West Texas, and both western
Nebraska and southeast Wyoming today. By Thursday, the threat for fire
weather becomes more focused in the southern High Plains as a Critical
Risk has been issued in the Texas Panhandle. In terms of temperatures,
summer-like warmth is on tap in the Southwest and the southern High Plains
through Thursday. Some record high temps could be broken in parts of the
Texas, eastern New Mexico, and southern Oklahoma both Wednesday and
Thursday. Farther east, seasonally cooler temperatures will remain in
place today and moderate closer to normal by Thursday. Eventually, 70s and
80s look to return to the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast by
Friday.

Mullinax


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php