Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 21 2022 - 00Z Sat Apr 23 2022

...Strong upper low to bring unsettled weather to much of the western half
of the country through Friday...

...Summer-like warmth and Critical Risks of fire weather for parts of the
Front Range, Southwest and Southern Plains through Saturday; northern tier
states continue cool trend through the end of the week...

A frontal system currently tracking through the Great Plains will spread
rain showers and thunderstorms across the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley
and Midwest tonight. Some storms may be severe, which is why the Storm
Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for
parts of eastern Oklahoma and the western Ozarks region, where a few
supercells capable of producing hail, isolated severe gusts and a tornado
are possible. Some light rain shower activity will spread into the Lower
Great Lakes and interior Northeast tomorrow as a second system begins to
emerge from the Rockies. This new system, powered by a deep upper-level
low will strengthen as it moves into the Great Plains on Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a warm front ascending
through parts of the Central Plains and Missouri Valley Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night, where a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is in
effect. Large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible from the storms.
This rising warm front will spread showers and thunderstorms into the
Upper Midwest Thursday night into Friday morning.

Another surface wave embedded farther upstream from the Plains system will
rapidly strengthen as it moves into the Plains on Friday afternoon. Before
this it will produce showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific
Northwest tonight. Heavy mountain snow will develop across the Sierra and
showers and scattered thunderstorms spread into the Great Basin and
Intermountain West on Thursday, as a cold front moves through the interior
West. This system will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to
the Great Plains and Upper Midwest by Friday afternoon, while generating
snow showers over the highest elevations of the Northern Rockies. Severe
thunderstorms are possible from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into
southeastern South Dakota, where the Storm Prediction Center issued a
Slight Risk for Friday. Hail and strong/damaging wind gusts will be the
main concerns from any severe weather that materializes, but severe hail
may occur from parts of the lower/middle Missouri Valley into parts of the
Upper Midwest Friday afternoon into Friday night.

Over the next few days, warm air will spread across the Plains and
southern tier states beneath an upper-level ridge. A Critical Risk of fire
weather is in effect for parts of the Southwest, Southern Plains and Front
Range tonight due to gusty winds, warm temperatures and dry conditions.
Highs will be 15-20 degrees above average for parts of the Front Range and
Texas/Oklahoma panhandle on Thursday. Temperatures will be summer-like
over parts of the Central Plains on Friday with highs likely to be between
20-30 degrees above average. The ridge will also expand into the Southeast
on Friday which will allow for the spreading of warm air into the East
through the weekend. Cold air will persist across the northern tier states
over the next few days.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php