Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 21 2022 - 12Z Sat Apr 23 2022

...Strong upper low to bring bring cool and wet weather to the West Coast
today, then spawn another late season winter storm in the northern High
Plains & Rockies to kickoff the weekend...

...Summer-like warmth for parts of the Front Range, Southwest and Southern
Plains through Friday; Extreme Risk of fire weather conditions in parts of
eastern Colorado and central New Mexico on Friday...

...Multi-day stretch of severe weather in the Heartland; warming trend
from the Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley to the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic...

The West the Plains will experience the most active weather for the
remainder of the week as a robust upper level low slams into the West
Coast today, then tracks into the northern High Plains to open the
weekend. Today, a stream of Pacific moisture ahead of the upper low track
directly into the West Coast leading to widespread showers and mountain
snow. Snowfall will likely be measured in feet up and down the Sierra
Nevada with over two feet of snow possible in the tallest peaks. This has
resulted in the issuance of Winter Storm Warnings for the Sierra Nevada
with Winter Weather Advisories posted for the Shastas and into parts of
northeast Nevada. By Friday, heavy snow arrives in the Wasatch, Tetons,
and Absoroka Ranges where as much as a foot of snow is forecast. The upper
low looks to restrengthen over Wyoming Friday night leading to a rapidly
strengthening surface low in the northern High Plains. Subfreezing
temperatures aloft filtering down on the backside of the storm system will
result in heavy snow and gusty winds from northern Wyoming and southern
Montana to the western Dakotas. Winter Storm Watches have been hoisted for
these areas due to the growing potential for over a foot of snow and
whiteout conditions due to heavy snowfall rates and/or strong winds
causing reduced visibilities. Interest in the northern Rockies and
northern High Plains will want to monitor the forecast closely in the
coming days for the latest developments on this impending late season
winter storm.

In contrast, summer-like temperatures will be common in the Southwest,
southern and central High Plains, and Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley
the next couple days. High temps will soar into the 90s across West Texas
today as well as parts of the Desert Southwest. A Critical Risk for fire
weather remains in place over the Texas Panhandle and into eastern New
Mexico due to very dry relative humidity levels, gusty winds, and dry
fuels. By Friday, the swath of 90s extend as far north as Nebraska,
eastern Colorado, and western Kansas where highs will be 20 to 30 degrees
above normal. The aforementioned upper trough in the West fosters an even
more favorable setup for fire weather on Friday, prompting the Storm
Prediction Center to issue an Extreme Risk for fire weather in eastern
Colorado on south into northern and central New Mexico. The areal extent
of the Critical Risk for fire weather is rather extensive stretching from
western Nebraska on south into far West Texas and southeast Arizona.
Widespread Red Flag Warnings and numerous High Wind Watches are in place
throughout much of the Southwest and southern High Plains in advance of
the anticipated multi-day fire weather setup.

The Heartland will also brace for multiple days worth of severe weather
with the first are at risk being the Central Plains and Midwest. A Slight
Risk (threat level 2/5) for severe storms has been posted in central
Kansas and far southeast Nebraska due to a warm front lifting north
through the region. By Friday, severe storms look to erupt along and just
ahead of a strong cold front and dryline propagating east through the
Great Plains late in the day. An elongated Enhanced Risk (threat level
3/5) is in place from the Texas Panhandle on north into South Dakota with
severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
wind gusts. Farther east, drier conditions will generally be the theme to
close out the week thanks to a pair of high pressures; one in the
Southeast and another tracking through the Northeast and southeast Canada.
As the high pressure areas slide east, southerly flow will usher in warmer
than normal temperatures across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. This same abnormally warm air-mass
arrives in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by Friday with high temps
reaching the 80s. The Northeast will continue to experience seasonally
cooler conditions into the start of the upcoming weekend and will have to
wait until Sunday for more May-like temperatures to arrive.

Mullinax


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php