Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 22 2022 - 12Z Sun Apr 24 2022

...Significant winter storm to impact parts of the northern Rockies and
northern Plains with heavy snow and blizzard conditions beginning
tonight...

...Severe thunderstorms expected over the Great Plains today and from the
Upper Midwest to the southern Plains on Saturday along with the potential
for scattered instances of flash flooding...

...Damaging wind gusts and very dangerous fire-weather conditions are
forecast throughout the central/southern High Plains and southern Rockies
today...

A powerful and dynamic April storm system is expected to impact the
central U.S. today and produce a plethora of weather hazards stretching
the entire length of the Great Plains. The catalyst for this system is a
potent negatively tilted upper-level trough that is currently entering the
West Coast and expected to rapidly strengthen into a closed upper-level
low over the northern High Plains on Saturday. At the surface, an area of
low pressure is forecast to develop and strengthen over the High Plains
near far western Nebraska by this evening. Meanwhile, precipitation will
blossom to the north and west of the low pressure center tonight, which
will help draw much colder air from the mid-levels down to surface. A
quick changeover from rain to snow will commence across parts of northeast
Wyoming and eastern Montana into Sunday morning, with heavy snow expanding
into the western Dakotas by Saturday afternoon. Gusty winds as high as 75
mph will combine with heavy snowfall rates to create low visibilities and
blizzard conditions. Travel will be very difficult to impossible at times,
with power outages and tree damage also expected. Total snowfall amounts
by the time the storm exits on Sunday are forecast to exceed 1 foot across
northeast Wyoming, eastern Montana, western North Dakota, and northwest
South Dakota. Parts of the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies,
extending into southwest Montana, western Wyoming, Utah, and western
Colorado could also see snowfall totals over a foot.

On the warm side of the system, a dry line and approaching Pacific cold
front will be the trigger for developing thunderstorms throughout the
Great Plains late this afternoon. Several storms could turn severe and
produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. The greatest
chances for severe weather today extends from central Nebraska through
western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. It is this region
where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an Enhanced Risk (level
3/5) of severe thunderstorms. As the cold front progresses eastward on
Saturday, the severe weather threat will shift into the Upper Midwest and
stretch southwestward into the southern Plains. SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather from Minnesota to central Oklahoma for
the start of the weekend. Heavy rain is also a potential hazard to contend
with as thunderstorms develop and lead to scattered instances of flash
flooding. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect
today for parts of the Midwest and northern Plains. Showers and
thunderstorms along a warm front could contain intense rainfall rates
beginning this morning from central Iowa to northern Illinois.
Additionally, heavy rain over a melting snowpack could lead to flooding
concerns over central/eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota. By
Sunday, as the cold front reaches the Middle Mississippi Valley, several
rounds of slow-moving thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to
southern Illinois. Widespread rainfall amounts over 2 inches are forecast
and could lead to the threat of flash flooding, which has prompted a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall to be issued for the region.

Throughout the central/southern High Plains and southern Rockies there is
a threat of extremely critical fire weather today. This area will be
located on the dry side of the aforementioned dry line and experience a
combination of high winds and very low relative humidity. As a result, any
existing wildfires could spread uncontrollably and new wildfires could be
easily started. More specially, the Colorado Front Range into east-central
New Mexico is under the greatest risk today. Red Flag Warnings are in
effect from Nebraska to southern Arizona. Besides increasing the fire
weather threat, high winds could be particularly dangerous from the
central Plains to eastern Arizona as gusts approach 70 mph. Potential
impacts include damage to power lines and blow down trees, as well as
treacherous travel conditions for high profile vehicles. High Wind
Warnings and Wind Advisories have been issued.

Lastly, warm temperatures will be located throughout much of the central
and eastern parts of the country into the start of the weekend as
southerly winds flow ahead of the major central U.S. storm system. Highs
into the 80s are expected to reach the Ohio Valley on Saturday and
Mid-Atlantic by Sunday. Conversely, below average and cooler temperatures
should remain across much of New England and Intermountain West through
the short term, with well below average temperatures rightfully found
where snow is forecast across the northern Plains.

Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php