Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 AM EDT Sun Apr 24 2022

Valid 12Z Sun Apr 24 2022 - 12Z Tue Apr 26 2022

...Heavy rain and instances of flash flooding likely across parts of the
southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today...

...Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact areas from the Great Lakes to
the southern Plains through this evening...

...Blizzard conditions to gradually come to an end across parts of the
northern Plains...

A strong spring cold front traversing the center of the Nation this
morning will continue to spawn numerous showers and thunderstorms through
the beginning of the workweek. Thunderstorms are expected to be more
widespread across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern
Plains today, where storms could contain heavy rainfall rates and track
over similar areas into the evening hours. This will likely lead to
instances of flash flooding from far north-central Texas to northwest
Arkansas, including southeast Oklahoma. Rainfall totals could locally
reach up to 5 inches in this region. In order to highlight the concern, a
Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued, along
with Flood Watches. Residents within the threat area are advised avoid
driving through flood prone areas and never drive through flooded roads.

A few thunderstorms along the aforementioned cold front could turn severe
from Michigan to Texas. Potential hazards include frequent lightning,
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. The greatest
chances for severe thunderstorms today exists across portions of the
Midwest and Lower Michigan, as well as parts of the southern Plains. The
Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms for these areas. By Monday, the cold front and associated
rainfall chances shift south and east, while losing most of its punch. A
few isolated instances of flash flooding may still impact parts of the
central/eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley, with a low risk of
severe thunderstorms as well. Showers and thunderstorms will stretch along
the cold front from the Lower Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley, where a few
damaging wind gusts are not out of the question. Unsettled weather will
then enter parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday as the cold
front gradually slides off the East Coast.

Meanwhile, winter is still hanging on across the northern Plains as
blizzard conditions continue into this afternoon. A powerful low pressure
system will slowly weaken and shift into southwest Ontario by this
evening, with the dangerous combination of heavy snow and gusty winds
coming to an end. Additional snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
possible across North Dakota this morning, with blowing snow remaining a
concern into the early evening hours. Blizzard Warnings and Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect across much of North Dakota, western South
Dakota, eastern Montana, and the northern Nebraska Panhandle.

Elsewhere, lower elevation rain showers and light high elevation snow is
set to return to the Northwest and northern Great Basin on Monday as an
approaching frontal system nears the region. Snow is also forecast across
parts of the central Rockies into early Monday, with accumulations
approaching 8 inches for the tallest mountain ranges of Colorado.

In regards to temperatures, summer-like warmth will be found throughout
much of the East today while New England and coastal sections of the
Northeast will stay on the cool side thanks to easterly flow off the
chilly Atlantic Ocean. On Monday, highs into the 70s and 80s will remain
over the Ohio Valley and interior sections of the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic before cooler air arrives behind the cold front on Tuesday.
Well below average to potentially record-breaking cold will remain locked
in across the Northern Plains over the next few days and expand
southeastward into the Midwest early this week, which will likely prompt
frost/freeze concerns. Conversely, an upper-level ridge building into the
Southwest today will allow for above average temperatures throughout
southern California and the Desert Southwest through Tuesday.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php