Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 25 2022 - 12Z Wed Apr 27 2022

...Isolated flash floods possible across parts of the Lower Mississippi
Valley and southern/eastern Texas today...

...A Marginal Risk of severe weather extends along a cold front from the
Lower Great Lakes to South Texas through tonight before shifting towards
the southern Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday...

...Well below average temperatures forecast across the northern Plains,
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through midweek...

The final Monday of the month will feature shower and thunderstorm chances
stretching along a cold front that reaches from the Lower Great Lakes to
South Texas. There is the potential for repeating rounds of heavy rain to
impact areas between the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Texas. This
may lead to isolated chances for flash flooding, particularly throughout
flood prone regions, as the bulk of the heavy rain is expected to fall
over regions experiencing severe to exceptional drought. A Marginal Risk
(level 1/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued and extends from western
Mississippi to South Texas. Additionally, a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of
severe weather is in effect from western New York to southern Texas as
thunderstorms forming along the cold front could produce occasional
damaging wind gusts and some hail. By Tuesday, the cold front will
gradually shift south and east toward the East Coast and northern Gulf of
Mexico. The threat for isolated flash floods will remain across South
Texas, with a few severe thunderstorms possible throughout the southern
Mid-Atlantic.

Elsewhere, a frontal system entering the Pacific Northwest will spread
mostly light precipitation into the northern Great Basin through late
Tuesday. Rain and snow showers will also likely spread across northern New
England by Wednesday as a coastal storm begins to develop near the Gulf of
Maine. Scattered lake effect snow showers will be found throughout the
Great Lakes region on Tuesday and Wednesday while persistent northwesterly
winds usher in well below average temperatures.

Speaking of below average temperatures, highs today are forecast to be
nearly 30 degrees below average throughout the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. This equates to temperatures struggling to reach out of the 30s
and 40s, with lows in the teens and 20s. Winter-like temperatures will
persist through Wednesday and spread farther into the Midwest and
Northeast, albeit not as anomalous. A few daily record lows could be tied
or broken in the Midwest and Great Lakes, with the cold temperatures
potentially leading to frost/freeze concerns for sensitive vegetation. On
the other end of the spectrum, above average temperatures are again
forecast across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Interior Northeast today
ahead of the advancing cold front. For the Desert Southwest, an
upper-level ridge will continue to lead to an early taste of spring as
high soar into the 90s. Warm temperatures will also quickly return to the
central Plains by midweek.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php