Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Apr 26 2022 - 12Z Thu Apr 28 2022

...Showers and thunderstorms expected along the East Coast and South Texas
today near a progressing cold front...

...Developing low pressure system to impact New England with rain and
higher elevation snow beginning tonight...

...Well below average temperatures forecast between the northern Plains
and Northeast over the next several days...

Unsettled weather is forecast to continue sliding eastward today along a
cold front currently stretching from the Interior Northeast to the central
Gulf Coast and South Texas. The cold front is expected to reach off the
East Coast by Tuesday night, but linger near far southern Texas. As it
does so, a few developing thunderstorms could turn severe across the
Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic. The Storm Prediction center has
issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms from portions
of southeast Virginia to east-central Georgia. Thunderstorms here may
produce isolated damaging wind gusts and some hail into early this
evening. Slow-moving thunderstorms may also lead to isolated instances of
flash flooding throughout far southern Texas, where a Marginal Risk (level
1/4) of excessive rainfall is in effect.

By tonight, an area of low pressure forming along the aforementioned cold
front is forecast to strengthen and swing northeast toward coastal New
England. Areas of light-to-moderate rainfall will impact parts of southern
New England into early Wednesday morning as a result. The low pressure
system is then expected to reduce forward motion and occlude near the Gulf
of Maine, while continuing to strengthen as a closed upper-level low
approaches from the west. Widespread showers will overspread northern New
England, with rain changing to snow across the higher terrain and parts of
northern Maine. The greatest snowfall amounts through Thursday (up to
around 4 inches) is most likely to occur across northern Maine.

Elsewhere, relatively light precipitation will be found across the
northern Great Basin and northern Rockies today as a weak cold front
traverses the region. For the central U.S., active weather returns along a
stationary front on Wednesday with the threat of isolated severe
thunderstorms and flash floods. A Marginal Risk of severe weather exists
from western Kansas to the southern High Plains, where damaging wind gusts
and large hail are the primary severe threats. A few instances of flash
flooding cannot be ruled out farther northeast from eastern Kansas to far
western Missouri as slow-moving thunderstorms develop over the region
Wednesday night. The isolated threat of flash flooding will also linger
into Thursday across similar areas due unsettled weather remaining near
the meandering frontal boundary extending across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley into the central Plains.

Temperatures through Thursday will remain below average across the
northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast as the previously
mentioned low pressure system near Maine and strong high pressure building
into the Upper Great Lakes provides continuous chilly northwest winds.
Highs will struggle to reach above freezing today from northern North
Dakota to the U.P. of Michigan. This equates to around 25 degrees below
average. A few daily low temperature records could fall across the Midwest
and Great Lakes both this morning and Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, low
temperatures into the 30s and upper 20s will create frost/freeze concerns
throughout the Midwest, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and central Plains today.
The frost/freeze threat will gradually shift eastward on Wednesday and
Thursday, spreading into the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic.
Conversely, above average temperatures will hang on for one more day
across the southern Mid-Atlantic ahead of the approaching cold front. Warm
temperatures underneath a building upper-level ridge will spread from the
Southwest to the central Plains by midweek, where highs could reach into
80s and low 90s.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php