Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 29 2022 - 12Z Sun May 01 2022

...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms for portions of the Plains and Ohio
Valley on Friday and Saturday...

...There is an Extreme Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains on Friday...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies...

Friday, a strong storm over the Central Plains will slowly move
northeastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley by Sunday. The system will
pull moisture northward over the Plains and the associated front will
destabilize the atmosphere producing showers and thunderstorms over the
Plains on Friday and into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Therefore, the SPC
has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the
Central/Southern Plains through Saturday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is an increased risk
of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and hail two inches or greater associated with
some of these thunderstorms.

In addition, heavy rain will develop farther to the northwest over the
Northern Plains with a strong moisture inflow. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Northern Plains. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams being the most
vulnerable through Saturday morning.

Under a deep upper-level low, even farther northwest, temperatures will be
10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of the Northern High
Plains/Northern Rockies. With moisture moving into the Northern Rockies,
snow will develop over parts of the region through Saturday morning.

On Saturday, the threat of severe thunderstorms moves eastward to the
Western Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Western Ohio Valley on Saturday into
Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

However, the excessive rainfall threat will lower and cover two areas on
Saturday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley and a
second over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Lower Mississippi
Valley on Saturday into Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience
rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest overnight
Friday, moving inland to the Great Basin by Sunday. The system will begin
to produce coastal rain and highest elevation snow over parts of the
Pacific Northwest on Friday. The rain and highest elevation snow will move
inland to the Northern Intermountain Region on Saturday afternoon into
Sunday.

Furthermore, the SPC has issued an Extreme Risk of fire weather over parts
of the Central/Southern High Plains on Friday. The fire weather risk is
due to strong gusty winds, dry fuels, and low relative humidity.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php