Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 30 2022 - 00Z Mon May 02 2022

...A Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms exists across the central
Plains this evening into tonight while Extremely Critical fire weather
will impact the southern to central High Plains...

...Heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding will exist across the
north-central U.S. into Saturday while locally heavy rain is expected for
portions of Florida...

...Temperatures will generally be warmer than average across southern
portions of the nation while cooler than average temperatures will be in
place across many northern locations...

A storm system moving into the central U.S. as of Friday afternoon will
likely support the development of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the central to southern Plains late this afternoon into tonight. A
combination of favorable wind shear and the northward transport of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will lead to the development of strong
and severe thunderstorms beginning late Friday afternoon over the Great
Plains. There will be the potential for significant tornadoes, destructive
wind gusts and very large hail with a focus over southeastern Nebraska
into eastern Kansas as highlighted by the Moderate Risk in place by the
Storm Prediction Center. Farther north, several rounds of moderate to
heavy rain will lead to an increased threat for flash flooding from
northern Nebraska into south-central North Dakota through Saturday
morning. Farther south, high winds and extremely dry relative humidities
will drive an Extremely Critical Risk for the spreading of wildfires
across northeastern New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and southwestern
Kansas, behind a dryline and with the passage of a cold front from the
north which will increase wind speeds late this evening.

On Saturday, a relatively strong surface low will move into the upper
Mississippi Valley as an associated occluded/cold front sweeps eastward
across the Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms and
localized flash flooding will be possible with thunderstorms that develop
ahead of the cold front, with better chances for severe storms from the
middle Mississippi Valley toward southern portions of Lake Michigan. The
cold front will stall and eventually retreat across the southern Plains on
Sunday where the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will exist
across portions of western Texas.

In addition to the strong storm system forecast to impact portions of the
central to eastern U.S. into this weekend, another upper level disturbance
will track into the northwestern U.S. by early Saturday morning bringing a
mixture of rain and mountain snow to the drought stricken Interior
Northwest. Across Florida, a lingering and weakening frontal boundary will
help trigger diurnally driven thunderstorms with potential for very heavy
rainfall, mainly across central and southern portions of the Florida
Peninsula.

Regarding temperatures, positive daily maximum temperature anomalies of 10
to 20 degrees above late April/early May averages will exist from the
southwestern U.S. into the southeastern U.S. over the weekend. Conversely,
high temperatures will generally be 10-20 degrees below average from the
Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains and portions of New England,
with warmer weather expected for New England on Sunday.

Otto

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php