Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Valid 12Z Sat Apr 30 2022 - 12Z Mon May 02 2022 ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the Upper Mississippi, Western Ohio Valleys, and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the Texas Panhandle for Sunday into Monday morning... ...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley and from the Western Ohio Valley to Lower Mississippi Valley through Sunday; a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains... ...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southwest/Southern Rockies on Sunday... Saturday, a strong storm over the Central Missouri Valley will slowly move northeastward to the northern coast of Lake Superior by Monday. The system will pull moisture northward over the Mississippi Valley. The associated front will destabilize the atmosphere producing showers and thunderstorms over the Upper Mississippi, Western Ohio Valleys, and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Upper Mississippi, Western Ohio Valleys, and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, heavy rain will develop north of the surface low over the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley with a strong moisture inflow. A second region of heavy rain will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over those two regions through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain through Sunday morning. On Sunday, the threat of severe thunderstorms moves eastward to the Eastern Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the area on Sunday into Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat for tornadoes. The associated front moves to the Mid-Atlantic by Monday, producing light rain over parts of the Northeast and showers and thunderstorms along the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest Saturday, moving south and eastward to the Southern High Plains into the Southern Rockies by Monday. The system will begin to produce coastal rain and highest elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest/Northern California on Saturday, ending by Sunday. By Sunday morning, the rain and highest elevation snow will move to the Northern Rockies and Great Basin. Moreover, as the system moves out of the Southwest, moisture will move northward over the Southern High Plains, aiding in destabilizing the atmosphere producing showers and thunderstorms overnight Sunday into Monday morning over the area. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Texas Panhandle on Sunday into Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Furthermore, the SPC has issued an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains and Southern Rockies on Saturday. On Sunday, the fire weather risk increases to a Critical Risk over the Southwest and Southern Rockies. The Fire weather threat is due to gusty winds, dry fuels, and low relative humidity. Ziegenfelder Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php