Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022

Valid 00Z Sun May 01 2022 - 00Z Tue May 03 2022

...Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the Midwest into the
ArkLaTex today along with locally heavy rain/possible flash flooding...

...Severe thunderstorms will be possible over the southern High Plains on
Sunday with flash flood potential extending eastward into parts of
northern Texas into Oklahoma through Sunday night...

...Critical Risk of fire weather for northern Arizona into western and
central New Mexico on Sunday...

Thunderstorms are likely to develop through this evening ahead a cold
front tracking eastward into the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys.
Some severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Wisconsin into
the middle Mississippi Valley and northeastern Texas along with localized
flash flooding. Farther east, diurnally driven thunderstorms across
central and southern Florida will be capable of very heavy rain this
evening along with a localized flash flood threat, mainly over any urban
areas that will be prone to poor drainage.

As the cold front continues eastward on Sunday, rain and thunderstorms
will spread eastward into the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and southeastern
U.S., but the threat for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will be
more localized when compared to today's threat. However, the portion of
the front over Texas will lift northward as a warm front during the day on
Sunday, with a dryline extending southward through eastern New Mexico into
western Texas from a surface low lifting north. A return of moisture along
with favorable upper level dynamics has prompted the Storm Prediction
Center to issue an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms over the Texas
Panhandle, eastern New Mexico into portions of the Permian Basin. Threats
of tornadoes, large hail and damaging straight line winds will exist along
with an evolving threat for flash flooding as storms track eastward Sunday
night. West of the dryline, conditions will be highly favorable for the
spreading of wildfires as winds of 25 to 35 mph combine with low relative
humidities over northern portions of Arizona into much of New Mexico with
a reduced risk over the remainder of Arizona into portions of southern
Nevada, Utah and Colorado. The storm system will move eastward on Monday,
spreading rain through the Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley along
with some light snow accumulations for portions of western Nebraska.

A storm system is forecast to continue moving inland from the Northwest
tonight, spreading rain and higher elevation snow across the Intermountain
region of the western U.S. through Sunday, however precipitation totals
are not expected to be very high. Sunday night, a somewhat stronger system
is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest which will usher in a cold
front along with light to moderate rain for the Pacific Northwest and snow
into the Cascades and some of the higher terrain of eastern Oregon into
central Idaho.

Otto

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php