Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Mon May 02 2022

Valid 12Z Mon May 02 2022 - 12Z Wed May 04 2022

...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms for portions of the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the Ohio
Valley through Tuesday into Wednesday morning...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average over
Northern/Central Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
Rockies/Southwest...

On Monday morning, low pressure roughly over the Northeast will slowly
move eastward off the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday evening. The
system will produce light rain from parts of the Great Lakes to the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and then linger over New England through
Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure over the Central/Southern High Plains on
Monday will move eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday. In
addition, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will move northward
over the Southern/Central Plains. The associated boundary and moisture
will aid in destabilizing the atmosphere producing showers and
thunderstorms from the Central High Plains to the Southern Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Central/Southern Plains through Tuesday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is
an increased risk for EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and large hail, two inches or
greater over the area.

In addition, the threat of excessive rainfall increases over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through
Tuesday morning. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams being the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, the upper-level energy associated with the system will aid in
producing light snow over parts of the Central Rockies and snow/rain over
the Central Plains. Additionally, cold high pressure will build in the
system s wake, allowing temperatures to become 10 to 25 degrees below
average over Northern/Central Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley.

On Tuesday, as the front moves eastward, the threat of severe
thunderstorms moves eastward to the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front,
moisture will stream into the Ohio Valley, aiding in destabilizing the
atmosphere. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley on Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In
addition, moderate to heavy rain will be associated with these
thunderstorms, and the storms will be going over areas sensitive to
excessive rainfall. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall over the Lower Great Lakes parts into the Central
Appalachians on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that
experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Moreover, on Monday, a front will move from the Pacific Northwest to the
Southern Plains by Wednesday. The system will produce rain and highest
elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California, expanding into parts of the Northern Intermountain Region by
Monday afternoon. Overnight Monday, more snow than rain will move into the
Northern Rockies, with snow moving into the Central Rockies and rain over
parts of the Central High Plains by Wednesday morning.

As the associated energy moves out of the Rockies into the Plains,
moisture will once again be drawn over the Southern/Central Plains late
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. As a result, showers and thunderstorms
will develop over parts of the Southern Plains overnight Tuesday.

Furthermore, the SPC issued a Critical Risk of fire weather over the
Southern Rockies on Monday. The fire weather threat is due to gusty winds,
dry fuels, and low relative humidity. On Tuesday, the threat of fire
weather expands over parts of the Southwest while continuing over the
Southern Rockies.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php