Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 346 PM EDT Mon May 02 2022 Valid 00Z Tue May 03 2022 - 00Z Thu May 05 2022 ...Heavy Rains, Flash Flooding and Severe Weather will threaten the Southern Plains Monday night/early Tuesday and again on Wednesday... ...An Elevated to Critical Fire Weather Threat to continue across the Southern High Plains... ...Heavy Precipitation possible from the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... ...Much below average temperatures expected for the Central Plains, while above average temperatures stretch from the Southern Plains, across the Gulf Coast and into the Mid Atlantic and develop over California into portions of the Pacific Northwest... The recent active weather pattern that has seen a series of systems push off the eastern Pacific and move downstream across the Lower 48 will continue into the middle part of this week. The lead system pushing out into the Central to Southern Plains today will produce potential of heavy rains, flash flooding and severe weather Monday night into the early morning hour of Tuesday across much of Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. This will be followed by another system pushing inland today across the Pacific Northwest, through the Great Basin and Rockies on Tuesday and into the Central to Southern High Plains on Wednesday. Additional heavy rains, flash flooding and severe weather are again possible Wednesday across portions of the Southern Plains that are expected to receive these threats Monday night into early Tuesday. As this second system moves from the Pacific Northwest through the Northern Rockies, heavy snows are possible from the Cascades of Oregon into the Northern Rockies of south Central Idaho and northwest Wyoming To the south of the area of expected active thunderstorms over the next few days, high winds and continued dry conditions will keep the fire weather threat going across portions of the Southern High Plains from Western and Southwest Texas, across much of New Mexico, southeast Colorado into northern and eastern Arizona. These regions have had little if any precipitation over the past month and remain in extreme to exceptional drought as per the latest Drought Monitor. The aforementioned lead system bringing active weather Monday night into early Tuesday over the Southern Plains will continue to push east northeast through the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley on Tuesday and into the Northeast on Wednesday. Heavy rains are possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Lower Great Lakes with this system, along with a threat severe weather across the Ohio Valley. The current much below average temperatures across portions of the Central Plains on Monday will persist into mid week with high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below average. This below average temperature air will also be pushing eastward on Tuesday and Wednesday across the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast. The below average temperature anomalies across these regions, however, will not be as great as over the Central Plains with high temperatures approximately 6 to 12 degrees below average. Above average temperatures expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the Southern Plains, across the South and into the Mid-Atlantic. Much above average temperatures expected to build across California into the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Oravec Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php