Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

Valid 00Z Wed May 4 2022 - 00Z Fri May 6 2022

...There is a Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the
Central Plains on Wednesday...

...Heavy rain and potential flooding across parts of the south-central
U.S. on Wednesday...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
Rockies/Southwest...

The weather pattern will remain quite active from the Rockies to the
Appalachians through Thursday as a well organized storm system takes shape
across Colorado.  This low pressure system will emerge over the southern
High Plains by Wednesday afternoon, and then progress towards Missouri by
late Thursday.  One of the hazards from this event will be the plethora of
heavy rainfall that is forecast from northern Texas to western Missouri,
with the highest totals likely over eastern Oklahoma where a Moderate Risk
of excessive rainfall is in effect for Wednesday.  The potential exists
for patchy areas of 3-5 inch rainfall by Thursday evening, and training
convection with rainfall rates well over an inch per hour in some
instances could easily lead to flash flooding.  Another hazard will be the
Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across this same general area in the
warm sector of the low, with the potential for tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds. 

Elsewhere across the nation, fire weather concerns will be making weather
headlines across much of New Mexico and portions of Arizona and western
Texas through midweek, with hot temperatures, extremely low humidity, and
gusty winds increasing the potential for wildfires.  In addition, degraded
air quality is likely in some areas owing to wildfire smoke and also
blowing dust.  For the eastern U.S., scattered showers and storms are
likely for tonight and into Wednesday ahead of a cold front, and some of
these storms could also be strong to severe.  For the Pacific Northwest,
showers and high elevation snow returns on Thursday as a Pacific storm
system enters the region.

In terms of temperatures, it will remain rather cool across the
north-central U.S. and Great Lakes region, with highs running 10 to 20
degrees below average in many cases.  On the contrary, it will remain warm
and humid across the Southeast and Gulf Coast region with the cold front
not making much progress past the southern Tennessee border through the
middle of the week.

Hamrick

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php