Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Wed May 04 2022

Valid 12Z Wed May 04 2022 - 12Z Fri May 06 2022

On Wednesday and Thursday, heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will
develop over portions of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
Rockies...

On Wednesday, low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes will move off the
New England Coast overnight Wednesday. The associated front will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms from Southern New England southward
over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. There will be a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms over the southern Mid-Atlantic through Thursday
morning. Light rain will also develop over other parts of the Northeast
through overnight Wednesday.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, a wave of low pressure over the Southern High
Plains will slowly move to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Friday. The
low will draw moisture over the Southern/Central Plains as the associated
boundary aids in destabilizing the atmosphere producing showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of
severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains through Thursday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition,
there is an increased risk for EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and large hail, two
inches or greater, over parts of the area.

In addition, heavy rain will be associated with these thunderstorms.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms over parts of Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams
may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

The severe thunderstorm threat moves slightly eastward on Thursday. As a
result, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley from Thursday
through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

In addition, the threat of excessive rainfall will continue, however, at a
slightly lower threshold. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southern Plains on Thursday through Friday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, and small streams being the most vulnerable. Additionally,
showers and thunderstorms will move over parts of the Ohio Valley into The
Mid-Atlantic on Thursday into Friday morning.

Moreover, overnight Wednesday, upper-level energy will begin to move
onshore over the Pacific Northwest, producing light rain over the
Northwest. The light rain will start to move into Northern California by
late Thursday morning. Additionally, on Thursday morning, another front
will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest, moving inland and
regenerating over the Northern High Plains/Great Basin by Friday. Late
Thursday afternoon, light snow will develop over parts of the Cascades as
rain and higher elevation snow develops over parts of the Northern
Intermountain Region.

Furthermore, the SPC issued a Critical Risk of fire weather over the
Southern Rockies on Wednesday. The fire weather threat is due to gusty
winds, dry fuels, and low relative humidity. On Thursday, the threat of
fire weather decreases to an Elevated Risk over a small area of the
Southern Rockies.


Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php