Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 PM EDT Thu May 05 2022

Valid 00Z Fri May 06 2022 - 00Z Sun May 08 2022

...Severe thunderstorm and flash flood threat shifts eastward this evening
from the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains toward the
Southeast, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic on Friday...

...Unsettled weather continues across the Northwest and northern Great
Basin through Saturday...

...Building heat wave to impact the Southern Plains beginning on Friday...

A strong spring storm system currently churning over the central U.S. will
continue to spawn severe thunderstorms and instances of flash flooding
overnight throughout the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, while gradually
pushing eastward into the Southeast and Ohio Valley by Friday morning.
Specifically, the severe weather threat on Friday along and ahead of an
approaching cold front will span from southern West Virginia/eastern
Kentucky to the central Gulf Coast, including much of the southern
Mid-Atlantic. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe thunderstorms across this region, with a smaller Enhanced
Risk (level 3/5) across parts of southern Alabama and western Georgia.
These storms will have the potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and tornadoes. Farther north, heavy rain will have the potential to linger
just north of a slow-moving warm front throughout the Ohio Valley and into
the northern Mid-Atlantic. Rainfall totals up to 3 inches are possible and
could create scattered flooding concerns. To highlight the potential, a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued for Friday
from far eastern Ohio to northern Maryland and south-central Pennsylvania.
By Saturday, as a closed upper-level low moves over the Mid-Atlantic, a
secondary area of low pressure is forecast to develop near the southern
tip of the Delmarva Peninsula. This will lead to a very dreary start to
the weekend across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Gusty
northeasterly winds, moderate to locally heavy rain, and high temperatures
only into the 50s are expected. Minor coastal flooding is also possible as
gusty onshore flow persists along the New Jersey and Delmarva coastline.

Elsewhere, a deepening upper-level trough and embedded shortwaves entering
the Northwest will continue will continue to produce unsettled weather
over the region and into the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies. Heavy
snow is possible across the Cascades and mountainous terrain of Idaho and
southwest Montana, where over 6 inches of snow is likely. Moderate to
locally heavy rainfall is possible along coastal sections of the
Northwest. High winds may also lead to dangerous travel for high profile
vehicles over the northern High Plains on Friday as the aforementioned
system ejects out of the northern Rockies. High Wind Watches have been
issued across north-central Montana. Gusty winds may also be experienced
across parts of the central Great Basin and central/northern Sierra Nevada
through Saturday morning.

As the previously mentioned upper-level trough deepens over the West
Coast, a downstream ridge will build over the central U.S. and lead to
summer-like warmth over parts of the Southern Plains on Friday and
Saturday. On Saturday in particular, highs will soar into the upper 90s
and triple digits throughout the southern High Plains and much of Texas.
Heat indices will approach 110 degrees across South Texas. This
early-season heat will potentially break several daily high temperature
records and could be dangerous for residents if proper heat safety is not
followed. Overnight temperatures will offer some relief as lows dip into
the 70s.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php