Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Sat May 07 2022

Valid 00Z Sun May 08 2022 - 00Z Tue May 10 2022

...Wet and dreary Saturday evening to give way to drier, but abnormally
cool, conditions along the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday into Monday...

...Wet and stormy pattern to take shape across the North-Central U.S.;
Colder and wet in the West for accumulating mountain snowfall in the
Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest...

...First heat wave of the season to take hold of the southern & central
Plains; daily rounds of Critical fire weather conditions to stick around
parts of the Southwest & southern High Plains...

A pesky coastal low off the Eastern Seaboard continues to inundate the
Mid-Atlantic with thick cloud cover and dreary conditions. The wettest
conditions will be along the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight as the wave of low
pressure slowly inches east farther into the Atlantic Ocean. Occasionally
gusty winds will stick around with the strongest wind gusts along the
Mid-Atlantic coast, prompting the issuance of Coastal Flood Warnings along
the New Jersey and DelMarVa coasts. The low moves just far enough off the
coast to allow for sunshine to return for areas west on I-95 in the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A few scattered showers are possible
along the immediate coastal areas but drier conditions return Sunday
night. High pressure building in from the west ensures a mostly dry Monday
for nearly all of the East Coast but seasonally cooler than normal
temperatures will hang on up and down the I-95 corridor the first half of
the week. In fact, a few daily record cold maximums are possible in the
Mid-Atlantic where highs struggle to get higher than the low 50s on Sunday.

While the a more tranquil weather pattern settles in to start the week
east of the Mississippi, the pattern will be most active in the West and
North-Central U.S.. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk
for severe storms in central South Dakota and central Nebraska as a
frontal boundary tracks across the region this evening. The storm track
will remain active across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest thanks to
a large longwave trough in the Northwest and a persistent upper level
ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The result is a series of frontal
boundaries setting up shop in these regions with daily episodes of showers
and thunderstorms. Both the Storm Prediction Center and Weather Prediction
Centers have Marginal Risks for either severe weather or Excessive
Rainfall in parts of these regions through Monday evening. The latest
precipitation forecast (through Monday evening) shows the wettest
conditions occurring in northern Nebraska and the eastern Dakotas into
northern Minnesota where rainfall amounts surpassing 2 inches are
possible. Farther west, much below normal temperatures may break daily
record cold maximums in parts of the Northwest. The anomalously cold
conditions extend as far south as southern California on Monday where a
few daily record low minimum temperatures could be broken. Along with the
cold temperatures, passing showers will make for damp conditions in parts
of the Pacific Northwest and the Intermountain West. Temperatures will be
cold enough to support snow from the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada
on east into the Northern Rockies. Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued for portions of western Oregon and northern California where snow
totals through Monday evening could exceed a foot. The Absoroka of
southern Montana also have a chance to accumulate over a foot of snow
between now and Monday evening.

In the Nation's Heartland, the first heat wave of the season is forecast
to build across the Southern Plains this weekend with its footprint of 90+
degree highs expanding into the Central Plains by Sunday. Portions of the
Midwest could see highs begin to eclipse 90 degrees by Monday. The hottest
temperatures versus normal will be centered in the High Plains of northern
Texas and central Oklahoma where daily temperature anomalies will
routinely range between 15 and 25 degrees. Numerous daily record high
temps spanning through Monday are anticipated from Louisiana and southern
Texas on north into Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Kansas. Along with the heat,
the combination of gusty winds, very low relative humidity levels, and dry
fuels keep conditions ripe for dangerous fire weather potential Red Flag
warnings currently extend from the Lower Colorado River Valley on east
into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued Critical Risks for fire weather for almost the entirety of New
Mexico and portions of northern Arizona, southeast Colorado, southwest
Kansas, and into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles on Sunday. A Critical Risk
for fire weather is likely to continue for most of the southern High
Plains and parts of the Southwest on Monday.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php