Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
413 AM EDT Sun May 08 2022

Valid 12Z Sun May 08 2022 - 12Z Tue May 10 2022

...Wet and dreary weather across the Mid-Atlantic will give way to drier
but abnormally cool conditions; damp and windy along the coast...

...Wet and stormy pattern across the north-central U.S. will be contrasted
with cold and mountain snows across the northern Rockies and Pacific
Northwest...

...First heat wave of the season to take hold of the southern & central
Plains while critical fire danger expected to persist from the Southwest
to the southern High Plains...

A pesky low pressure system responsible for the dreary and wet weather
lately over parts of the eastern U.S. is forecast to gradually slide off
the East Coast today.  This will result in the cool rain to gradually
taper off to drizzle near the coast while the interior sections will have
a chance to dry out later today.  However, an increasingly stagnant
weather pattern across the U.S. will keep the low pressure system spinning
fairly close to the East Coast for the next couple days and beyond. 
Persistent gusty winds from the northeast have prompted the issuance of
Coastal Flood Warnings along the New Jersey and DelMarVa coasts.  A high
pressure ridge will provide a mostly dry Monday for nearly all of the East
Coast but  temperatures will remain much cooler than normal up and down
the East Coast for at least the first half of the week.  In fact, a few
daily record cold maximums are possible in the Mid-Atlantic where highs
will struggle to get higher than the low 50s today.

Meanwhile, a rather active weather pattern is in store across the western
U.S. and into the northern Plains as back-to-back disturbances move
through an amplified upper-level trough.  The result will be a series of
frontal boundaries passing through these areas with daily episodes of
showers and thunderstorms.  Both the Storm Prediction Center and Weather
Prediction Centers have Marginal Risks for either severe weather or
Excessive Rainfall in parts of these regions through Monday night.  The
latest precipitation forecast (through Monday evening) shows the wettest
conditions occurring in northern Nebraska and the eastern Dakotas into
northern Minnesota where rainfall amounts surpassing 2 inches are
possible.  Farther west, much below normal temperatures may break daily
record cold maximums in parts of the Northwest.  The anomalously cold
conditions extend as far south as southern California on Monday where a
few daily record low minimum temperatures could be broken.  Along with the
cold temperatures, passing showers will make for damp conditions in parts
of the Pacific Northwest and the Intermountain West.  Temperatures will be
cold enough to support snow from the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada
on east into the Northern Rockies.  Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued for portions of western Oregon and northern California where snow
totals through Monday evening could exceed a foot.  The Absoroka of
southern Montana also have a chance to accumulate over a foot of snow
between now and Monday evening.

Over the central and southern Plains, the first heat wave of the season is
forecast to build across Texas and Oklahoma today with its footprint of
90+ degree highs expanding through the central Plains by Monday afternoon,
possibly reaching into the Midwest.  The hottest temperatures versus
normal will be centered in the High Plains of northern Texas and central
Oklahoma where daily temperature anomalies will routinely range between 15
and 25 degrees.  Numerous daily record high temps spanning through Monday
are anticipated from Louisiana and southern Texas on north into Oklahoma,
Arkansas, and Kansas.  Along with the heat, the combination of gusty
winds, very low relative humidity levels, and dry fuels will keep
conditions ripe for dangerous fire weather potential Red Flag warnings
currently extend from the Lower Colorado River Valley on east into the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.  The Storm Prediction Center has issued
Critical Risks for fire weather for almost the entirety of New Mexico and
portions of northern Arizona, southeast Colorado, southwest Kansas, and
into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles today and Monday, with little change in
the prevailing conditions expected by Tuesday.

Kong/Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php