Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EDT Sun May 08 2022

Valid 00Z Mon May 09 2022 - 00Z Wed May 11 2022

...Building Heat Wave to engulf much of the Nation's Heartland; Extreme
fire danger expected to persist from the Southwest to the southern High
Plains...

...Colder and mountain snows across the northern Rockies and Pacific
Northwest; stormy and wet in the Northern Plains...

...Severe storms in West Texas on Tuesday; Chilly along the East Coast to
start the week with prolonged high surf for coastal communities...

An intensifying upper level ridge atop the Nation's Heartland and strong
southwesterly flow extending from the Desert Southwest to the Upper
Midwest will lead to an ensuing heat wave from the Southern Plains to the
Midwest. Daytime highs in the 90s are anticipated from central Iowa all
the way south to the central Gulf Coast and South Texas. "Deep in the
Heart of Texas", highs could surpass the century mark for a second
straight day after today. In these areas, Heat Advisories have been posted
for parts of South and West Texas. Daytime high temperature anomalies on
Monday will range between 20 to 30 degrees above normal from the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles to central Iowa. By Tuesday, summer-like heat
continues in the same areas but abnormally hot conditions arrive in the
Great Lakes. Daytime record high temperatures are likely to be broken
throughout much of the South-Central U.S. both Monday and Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the deep upper trough in the Northwest and a strengthening
upper ridge in the Heartland fosters high winds throughout the Southwest.
High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been issued from southern
California on east to the southern High Plains. The combination of strong
winds, very low relative humidity levels, and dry fuels has given way to a
dangerous stretch of fire weather from eastern Arizona to the southern
High Plains. The SPC has issued an Extremely Critical Risk of fire weather
for portions of eastern New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and the western
portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today. On Monday, the
Extremely Critical Risk areas remains confined to some of the same areas,
but with a very large Critical Risk area still in place throughout the
same region. SPC does have a Critical Risk area out for Tuesday as well,
meaning the threat for dangerous fire weather conditions will likely
stretch into the middle of the work-week.

While the Nation's Heartland bakes in the first real taste of summer for
2022, the West and East Coasts will remain on the abnormally cooler side.
The coolest conditions versus normal are expected along the West Coast and
extending into the northern Rockies. Monday features both record cold max
and min temps in parts of northern California and the interior Pacific
Northwest with lingering pockets of possible record cold min temps in
northern California Tuesday morning. In addition to the cold, unsettled
weather will be common throughout the Northwest as the region sits under
the aforementioned upper low and rounds of upper level disturbances bring
occasional scattered showers and mountain snow to the higher elevations of
the Northwest. In particular, the Shasta/Trinity range of northern
California are under Winter Storm Warnings where snow totals are forecast
to exceed 6 inches. A little farther east, the Northern Plains and Midwest
will also witness a pair of frontal systems triggering showers and
thunderstorms across these regions. Some storms could be severe in the
Northern Plains with the most active day being Monday in the Midwest where
a Slight Risk is in place in central Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and
southwest Wisconsin. Overall, 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected in the
central Dakotas. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been posted for
parts of eastern South Dakota and northwest Minnesota today and a Marginal
Risk for much of North Dakota and northern Minnesota. 

Elsewhere, severe storms are forecast to fire along the dryline in West
Texas on Tuesday where a Slight Risk for severe weather is in place. The
most tranquil weather pattern will set up along the East Coast where and
elongated area of High Pressure will remain entrenched throughout the
first half of the work-week. A lingering low off the Mid-Atlantic coast
will still lead to choppy seas and high surf up and down the Eastern
Seaboard. Plus, chilly temperatures for mid-May will stick around through
Tuesday with daytime highs struggling to get out of the 60s from southern
New England to the Virginia and North Carolina Tidewater regions. Even the
lows on Monday morning will be quite cold in the central Appalachians
where Frost Advisories are in effect. Warmer the normal temperatures will
first spill over into northern New England by Tuesday. The East Coast as a
whole will remain dry through the first half of the week with the lone
exception being beaches from the DelMarVa on south along the Southeast
coast where occasional passing showers are possible.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php