Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon May 09 2022

Valid 12Z Mon May 09 2022 - 12Z Wed May 11 2022

...Anomalous heat expected to spread from the central/southern Plains
toward the Midwest as critical to extreme fire danger persists from the
Southwest to the southern High Plains...

...Cold and mountain snows from the West Coast to the northern Rockies and
Pacific Northwest as a quick round of heavy rain, thunderstorms and winds
sweeps across the northern Plains today...

...Severe storms possible in West Texas on Tuesday; Continued chilly and
windy conditions along the East Coast with prolonged high surf for coastal
communities...

The anomalous heat that was building over the southern Plains through this
past weekend is forecast to spread further to the north and northeast as a
warm ridge aloft will continued to be strengthened and then sustained by a
persistently strong jet stream from the Southwest.  Daytime highs well up
into the 90s are expected to expand northward through the central Plains
today behind a warm front and a dry line.  Parts of western Texas into the
Panhandle will once again see another afternoon with high temperatures
surpassing the century mark today. In fact, record high temperatures are
expected to shift north and east from the southern Plains today to mainly
over the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.  By Wednesday, highs
in the 90s are forecast to push northward into the central Plains and the
Midwest.  In addition, strong to high winds are expected to develop from
the central to southern Rockies to the nearby High Plains.  The
combination of strong winds, low humidity, and dry fuels will continue to
promote critical to extreme fire danger from eastern Arizona to the
southern High Plains.

In contrast to the anomalous heat in the midsection of the country, the
West and East Coasts will remain engulf in the abnormally cooler side. 
The coolest conditions versus normal are expected along the West Coast and
extending into the northern Rockies.  Both record cold max and min temps
are forecast for parts of northern California and the interior Pacific
Northwest today with lingering pockets of possible record cold min temps
in northern California Tuesday morning.  In addition to the cold,
unsettled weather will be common throughout the Northwest as the region
sits under the aforementioned upper low and seemingly unending series of
upper level disturbances, bringing occasional scattered showers and
mountain snow to the higher elevations of the Northwest, and down into the
Sierra Nevada.  Meanwhile over the northern Plains today, a rapidly
deepening low pressure system is forecast to bring a quick round of heavy
rain, possibly severe thunderstorms along with blustery winds across the
region.  Overall, 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected in the central
Dakotas.  A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been posted for parts
of eastern South Dakota and northwest Minnesota today and a Marginal Risk
for much of North Dakota and northern Minnesota. 

Elsewhere, severe storms are forecast to fire along the dryline in West
Texas on Tuesday where a Slight Risk for severe weather is in place. The
most tranquil weather pattern will set up along the East Coast where and
elongated area of high pressure will remain entrenched throughout the
first half of the work-week.  A lingering low off the Mid-Atlantic coast
will still lead to choppy seas and high surf up and down the Eastern
Seaboard.  In addition, chilly temperatures for mid-May will stick around
through Tuesday with daytime highs struggling to get out of the 60s from
southern New England to the Virginia and North Carolina Tidewater regions.
 Even the lows on Monday morning will be quite cold in the central
Appalachians where Frost Advisories are in effect. Warmer the normal
temperatures will first spill over into northern New England by Tuesday. 
The East Coast as a whole will remain dry through the first half of the
week with the lone exception being beaches from the DelMarVa on south
along the Southeast coast where occasional passing showers are possible.

Kong/Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php