Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 PM EDT Mon May 09 2022

Valid 00Z Tue May 10 2022 - 00Z Thu May 12 2022

...Summer-like heat to engulf much of the Heartland; critical to extreme
fire danger persists from the Southwest to the southern High Plains...

...Cold and mountain snows from the West Coast to the northern Rockies;
Rounds of heavy rain & thunderstorms to sweep across the northern Plains
and Midwest...

...Severe storms possible in West Texas on Tuesday; Continued chilly
conditions along the East Coast with prolonged high surf for coastal
communities...

As an upper level ridge builds over the Mississippi Valley this week,
temperatures will continue to surge to summer-like levels from the
southern Plains to the Midwest. Record heat in the southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon expands into the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, then into the Midwest and Great Lakes by
Wednesday and into Thursday. The heat dome will extend into the Southwest
where there is also an extensive area under a Critical Risk for fire
weather from northern Arizona to central Oklahoma and Kansas. The area
most susceptible to fire weather this afternoon is northeast New Mexico,
southeast Colorado, and parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle where an
Extreme Risk of fire weather conditions is in place due to dangerously low
relative humidity levels, very dry fuels, and high winds. Speaking of high
winds, High Wind Warnings are in place throughout much of the higher
elevations and high Plains of Colorado and New Mexico. Parts of eastern
Wyoming and western Nebraska are also under High Wind Warnings while much
of the Upper Midwest is also under Wind Advisories.

Throughout the western third of the Lower 48, a deep upper level trough is
set to keep anomalously colder temperatures entrenched along the West
Coast. More record breaking cold minimum temps are expected in northern
and central California Tuesday morning while daily temperature anomalies
up and down the West Coast range between 10 and 20 degrees below normal.
Temperatures will be cold enough to where Hard Freeze Warnings have been
issued for parts of coastal northern California. Due to these cold
temperatures, precipitation will fall as snow in parts of the Shasta,
Sierra Nevada, and Bitterroots this afternoon and into early Tuesday with
several inches of accumulation on tap. Farther east, upper level
disturbances ejecting out of the upper trough will lead to daily episodes
of severe storms and heavy rain in parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. A
frontal system is set to trigger severe storms in the Upper Mississippi
Valley this afternoon and evening with the most at risk area being
southeast Minnesota where an Enhanced Risk from the Storm Prediction
Center is in place. By Tuesday, the approaching cold front stalls over the
Great Lakes, causing severe storms to fire over parts of Wisconsin and
western Michigan. Finally by Wednesday, a strengthening storm system in
the central High Plains and a lifting warm front is set to ignite more
severe storms in parts of the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. In advance of
this, both the Storm Prediction Center and Weather Prediction centers have
issued subsequent Slight Risks for parts of the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest for severe weather and Excessive Rainfall.

Severe storms will also be possible both Tuesday and Wednesday in the
southern High Plains. A Slight Risk is in place for West Texas on Tuesday
while an expansive Marginal Risk stretches from the Big Bend of Texas on
north to the Black Hills of South Dakota. Farther east, a strong and large
area of high pressure has become wedged over southeast Canada stretching
on south into the Southeast today. This high pressure will stick around
through mid-week keeping dry conditions in place with plenty of sunshine
as well. However, a lingering surface low off the East Coast will continue
to aid in funneling cool northerly flow down the coast, keeping much of
the I-95 corridor on east to the coast feeling quite cool by mid-May
standards. Some parts of the coast, from New England on south to the North
Carolina Outer Banks, will struggle to get out of the 60s for highs on
Tuesday and Wednesday. These same areas are also contending with high surf
which has led to the issuance of Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories for
portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures will rebound to warmer
levels in northern New England first with much of Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic eventually returning to more seasonal temperature regimes the
second half of the week.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php