Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022

Valid 12Z Tue May 10 2022 - 12Z Thu May 12 2022

...Summer-like heat will expand northward through much of the Heartland;
critical fire danger persists from the Southwest to the southern High
Plains...

...Cold and mountain snows from the West Coast to the northern Rockies
while rounds of heavy rain & thunderstorms will expand across the northern
Plains...

...Severe storms possible in West Texas on Tuesday; Continued chilly
conditions along the East Coast with prolonged high surf for coastal
communities...

As an upper level ridge builds over the Mississippi Valley this week,
summer-like heat today over the central/southern Plains into the Midwest
is expected to expand northward into the northern Plains and the upper
Midwest by Thursday.  Record high temperatures into the 90s are forecast
to be concentrated near the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley today and
Wednesday, shifting just west of the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday.
 The combination of the heat and dry conditions will continue to result in
an extensive area of elevated to critical fire weather risk from northern
Arizona to central Oklahoma and Kansas.  Gusty winds that develop during
the day will help fan the fire potential, especially from the Four-Corners
region to the central/southern High Plains.  Cooler air behind a cold
front is forecast to arrive Wednesday night into early Thursday.  On the
other hand, drier air and gusty winds behind the front will help sustain
the risk of fire across these areas into Thursday.

Throughout the western part of the country, a deep upper level trough is
set to keep anomalously colder temperatures entrenched along the West
Coast.  The coldest areas will be found this morning in northern and
central California where more record cold temperatures are expected.  Hard
Freeze Warnings have been issued for parts of coastal northern California.
 Due to these cold temperatures, precipitation will fall as snow in parts
of the Shasta, Sierra Nevada, and Bitterroots this afternoon and into
early Tuesday with several inches of accumulation on tap.  During the next
couple of days, a low pressure system is forecast to slowy develop over
the central Rockies as a warm front extend eastward into the Midwest. 
This will result in a gradual expansion of showers and thunderstorms
across the northern Plains later on Wednesday to early on Thursday.  In
the near terms, clusters of showers and possibly severe storms are
expected to impact mainly the upper Midwest today.

Severe storms will also be possible both Tuesday and Wednesday in the
southern High Plains. A Slight Risk is in place for West Texas on Tuesday
while an expansive Marginal Risk stretches from the Big Bend of Texas on
north to the Black Hills of South Dakota. Farther east, a strong and large
area of high pressure has become wedged over southeast Canada stretching
on south into the Southeast today. This high pressure will stick around
through mid-week keeping dry conditions in place with plenty of sunshine
as well. However, a lingering surface low off the East Coast will continue
to aid in funneling cool northerly flow down the coast, keeping much of
the I-95 corridor on east to the coast feeling quite cool by mid-May
standards. Some parts of the coast, from New England on south to the North
Carolina Outer Banks, will struggle to get out of the 60s for highs on
Tuesday and Wednesday. These same areas are also contending with high surf
which has led to the issuance of Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories for
portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures will rebound to warmer
levels in northern New England first with much of Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic eventually returning to more seasonal temperature regimes the
second half of the week.

Kong/Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php