Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022

Valid 00Z Wed May 11 2022 - 00Z Fri May 13 2022

...Summer-like heat will expand northward through much of the Midwest and
Northeast; critical fire danger persists from the Southwest to the High
Plains...

...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms forecast for the Midwest as well as
the Southern High Plains...

...Cool temperatures and scattered low elevation rain/high elevation snow
persist over the western U.S., with heavier precipitation forecast for the
Northwest Thursday...

...Surface low over the Atlantic to keep temperatures cool and result in
high surf along the East Coast...

As an upper level ridge continues to build over the Mississippi Valley
this week, summer-like heat over the Heartland today will expand further
north into the Midwest and Interior Northeast Wednesday and Thursday.
Widespread, well above average high temperatures are forecast, with some
locations up to 30 degrees above average across the Middle Missouri and
Upper Mississippi Valleys. Record high temperatures into the 90s are
forecast from eastern portions of the Plains into the Lower and Middle
Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. Farther west, the combination of heat,
dry conditions, and gusty winds will continue to result in an extensive
area of Elevated to Critical fire weather risk as outlined by the Storm
Prediction Center from the Four-Corners region to the Central and Southern
High Plains Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings are also in effect across the
area. This risk will remain for portions of the Central and Southern High
Plains Thursday as gusty winds continue along a dry line in the lee of the
Rockies and a cold front approaches from the west.

Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are also forecast from the Midwest to
the Southern High Plains ahead of a strengthening storm system. There is a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall for portions of the Upper
Missouri and Mississippi Valleys Wednesday as deep moisture along a warm
front lifting northward across the region will lead to efficient, heavy
rain producing storms. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms for both this region as
well as the Southern High Plains. Large hail, gusty winds, and a couple
tornadoes are possible for the northern risk area while large hail will be
the main risk for the Southern High Plains. The risk for severe
thunderstorms will be higher Thursday as a surface low deepens and moves
into the Northern Plains. There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across a
larger portion of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with high CAPE
contributing to robust thunderstorm development and the potential for
large hail, gusty winds, and tornadoes. A Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall has also been issued as deep moisture remains in place along the
warm front, continuing to promote heavy rain rates. Storms may also have a
tendency to backbuild and move over the same locations, leading to areal
average rain totals of a couple inches, and potentially significantly
higher in areas that see continuous storms.

A deep upper level trough is set to keep anomalously colder temperatures
entrenched throughout the western part of the country. In contrast to the
central and eastern U.S., forecast highs will remain 10 to 20 degrees
below normal from the Desert Southwest north through the Great Basin and
Pacific Northwest Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate a bit further
south on Thursday, but continue to be well below normal for the Pacific
Northwest as a Pacific storm system approaches. Frost and freeze related
advisories continue for portions of coastal northern California and
southern Oregon as well as interior portions of Washington state.
Scattered low elevation rain/high elevation snow showers will continue in
the vicinity of a cold front slowly meandering through the Rockies and
Great Basin on Wednesday. Heavier precipitation is forecast to expand over
the Pacific Northwest from the coast inland Wednesday night into Thursday
as the Pacific storm system moves in.

A lingering surface low over the Atlantic will continue to aid in
funneling cool northerly flow down the East Coast, keeping much of the
I-95 corridor on east to the coast feeling quite cool by mid-May
standards.  Some parts of the coast, from New England on south to the
North Carolina Outer Banks, will struggle to get out of the 60s for highs
on Wednesday.  These same areas are also contending with high surf which
has led to the issuance of Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories for
portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast.  Temperatures will rebound to warmer
levels in New England on Thursday with much of Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
eventually returning to more seasonal temperature levels by the second
half of the week. 

Putnam/Kong

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php