Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022

Valid 12Z Wed May 11 2022 - 12Z Fri May 13 2022

...Summer-like heat continues to expand northeastward through the Midwest
and into the interior Northeast as a rapidly developing low pressure
system brings a quick episode of rain, wind, and severe thunderstorms
across the northern Plains by Thursday night...

...Additional rounds of thunderstorms expected to impact the southern High
Plains and the upper Midwest today and Thursday...

...Cool temperatures and scattered low elevation rain/high elevation snow
persist over the western U.S., with heavier precipitation forecast for the
Pacific Northwest Thursday but critical fire danger persists from the
Southwest to the High Plains...

...Low pressure system expected to move back toward the East Coast with
increasing chance of rain into late week...

An active and persistent upper-level trough will continue to provide cool
and unsettled weather across much the western U.S. to the northern High
Plains while heat is forecast to spread northeastward into the Midwest and
the interior Northeast for the next couple of days.  Record high
temperatures into the 90s are once again forecast from eastern portions of
the Plains into the lower and mid-Missouri and Mississippi Valleys under a
strengthening warm upper ridge.  Very warm afternoon temperatures into the
80s are forecast to expand into the interior section of New England on
Thursday, and possibly reaching the 90s by Friday.  The large contrast
between the cold in the West and the heat in the Plains is forecast to
trigger the rapid formation of a low pressure system.  This system is
expected to impact the northern Plains with a quick episode of heavy rain,
wind, and possibly severe thunderstorms late Thursday into early Friday. 
Prior to the formation of this system, additional rounds of strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to impact the southern High Plains ahead
of a dry line, while thunderstorms could reach severe limits ahead of a
lifting warm front over the upper Midwest today and Thursday.

A deep and persistent upper level trough will continue to keep anomalously
colder temperatures entrenched throughout the western part of the country.
 Forecast highs will remain 10 to 20+ degrees below normal from the Desert
Southwest north through the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest today. 
Temperatures will moderate a bit further south on Thursday, but continue
to be well below normal for the Pacific Northwest as a Pacific storm
system approaches.  Frost and freeze related advisories continue for
portions of coastal northern California and southern Oregon as well as
interior portions of Washington state.  Scattered low elevation rain/high
elevation snow showers will continue in the vicinity of a cold front
slowly meandering through the Rockies and Great Basin today.  Heavier
precipitation is forecast to expand over the Pacific Northwest from the
coast inland tonight into Thursday as another Pacific storm system moves
in.

A lingering surface low over the Atlantic will continue to funnel cool
northerly flow down the East Coast, keeping much of the I-95 corridor on
east to the coast feeling quite cool by mid-May standards.  Some parts of
the coast, from New England on south to the North Carolina Outer Banks,
will struggle to reach into the 70s for highs through late week.  Over the
next couple of days, the low pressure system is expected to move back
toward the East Coast.  The influx of Atlantic moisture will lead to an
increasing chance of rain from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast coast on
Thursday before spreading farther inland on Friday.  In addition to the
rain, portions of coastal areas will likely experience high surf as well
as flooding due to persistently strong and gusty north to northeasterly
winds.

Meanwhile, the combination of heat, dry conditions, and gusty winds will
continue to result in an extensive area of Elevated to Critical fire
weather risk as outlined by the Storm Prediction Center from the
Four-Corners region to the central and southern High Plains today.  Red
Flag Warnings are also in effect across the area.  This risk will remain
for portions of the central and southern High Plains Thursday as gusty
winds along a dry line in the lee of the Rockies are forecast to
strengthen with the passage of a cold front.

Kong/Putnam

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php