Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Thu May 12 2022

Valid 00Z Fri May 13 2022 - 00Z Sun May 15 2022

...Rapidly developing low pressure system will bring rounds of heavy rain,
severe thunderstorms and strong winds across the Upper Midwest and
northern Plains through tonight...

...Summer-like heat from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes and
northern New England will continue to challenge daily records...

...Unsettled weather along the East Coast and in the Lower Mississippi
Valley into the start of the upcoming weekend...

...Cooler and damp for in the Pacific Northwest with some periods of
mountain snow this afternoon...

A busy afternoon and evening is in store throughout the Northern Plains
and Upper Mississippi Valley as a strengthening storm system triggers
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will be severe with
dangerous wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail expected. The Storm
Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk for severe weather in parts
of eastern South Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and western Minnesota
where destructive winds could transpire within the more intense severe
storms. In addition to the severe threat, these storms will also be
capable of producing Excessive Rainfall rates. A pair of Slight Risks is
in place over portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota, as
well as the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. These areas could
witness area of flooding, especially where soils are the most saturated.
On Friday, the storm system lifts north into south-central Canada while
its cold front slowly inches east across the Midwest and central Plains.
While not as significant of a severe threat as today, there is still a
Slight Risk that stretches from northeast Oklahoma on north into the
western Great Lakes region. There is also a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall for similar at-risk areas for severe weather on Friday. The front
makes a little more eastward progress on Saturday but still remain a focal
point for afternoon and evening clusters of showers and thunderstorms.
Storm could be severe from the Great Lakes on south to West Texas, but it
is the central Plains and Ozarks that feature the best odds for witnessing
organized severe weather.

Meanwhile, an early taste of summer continues in the Southern Plains and
throughout much of the Mississippi Valley this afternoon, while even parts
of northern New England experiences near-record highs in the mid-upper
80s. Temperatures do moderate some on Friday as the aforementioned cold
front tracks across the Heartland but above normal temperature anomalies
on the order of 10-15 degrees is still expected. The hottest temperatures
versus normal will set up show over the Great Lakes and northern New
England where highs ranging 20-30 degrees above normal will challenge
daily record highs in the mid-upper 80s. By Saturday, summer-esque heat
arrives in the Desert Southwest where some record heat is possible. This
prolonged stretch of summer looks to stick around in the Southern Plains
throughout the weekend with daily chances for record breaking heat. As for
good news, after a multi-day string of Critical to Extreme Risks of Fire
Weather conditions in the southern High Plains and Southwest, winds look
to relax enough to finally provide from dangerous fire weather conditions,
although more summer-like heat and dry conditions persist.

Farther east, a wave of low pressure will meander along the Southeast
coast tomorrow and then slowly work its way up the East Coast on Saturday.
This low pressure system will provide an influx of Atlantic moisture along
the East Coast, leading to the daily opportunities for spotty showers and
thunderstorms from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Locally heavy
rainfall rates are possible, most notably in the Southeast today and
Friday. As the low begins to lift north along the front positioned off the
coast Saturday afternoon, some showers and storms may pop-up across
portions of the Northeast. In the Lower Mississippi Valley, a stalled
front will help to ignite scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. A Slight
Risk for severe weather has been issued in central Mississippi for this
afternoon and evening. The front weakens slightly on Friday but still help
to spark additional showers and storm in the Lower Mississippi Valley on
Friday.

To the West, a frontal system is bringing periods of rain and mountain
snow in the Pacific Northwest. Winter Weather Advisories were are in
effect for parts of the Cascades this afternoon. This storm system will
also lead to another injection of cool Pacific air from the Pacific
Northwest to the northern High Plains. Abnormally cool conditions look to
hang around through Saturday but rebound to seasonally warm levels by
Sunday as upper level ridging builds in aloft.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php