Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022

Valid 12Z Sat May 14 2022 - 12Z Mon May 16 2022

...Summer-like heat in the Northeast will continue to challenge daily high
temperature records today...

...Hot spell for the Desert Southwest, Southern Plains, and western Gulf
Coast into early next week...

...Unsettled weather along the East Coast, Northwest, and in the
Mississippi Valley...

It'll be hot across portions of the interior Northeast today with high
temperatures in the 80s likely to compete for daily records. Temperatures
will remain above average before moderating a bit early next week.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system will bring rain showers and high
elevation snow to parts of the Pacific Northwest this morning. Showers and
thunderstorms are then forecast to spread into the Northern Rockies this
afternoon as daytime heating brings potential instability to the area.
Things will quiet down in the Northwest on Sunday before another system
brings some more showers and thunderstorms to the region on Monday.
Speaking of thunderstorms, a slow moving upper trough will allow for the
potential development of severe thunderstorms along an attendant cold
front moving across the Mid-South and Midwest over the next couple of
days. Locally damaging winds and hail will be the primary risks from this
threat. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms are possible across much of
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday and Monday afternoon/evenings
due, in part, to persistent upper troughing, the approaching cold front
and diurnal heating.

Upper-level ridging in the Southwest will allow for potentially record
breaking heat to visit the region as well as the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley this weekend. Highs in the 90s and 100s may pose a
threat to those with poor cooling or heat sensitivities. The persistence
of this upper ridge across the southern tier states may become a problem
as a prolonged heat wave becomes a possibility heading into next week.
Parts of southern Colorado and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles are within
areas of elevated fire risk this weekend due to relatively dry and windy
conditions.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php