Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

Valid 00Z Sun May 15 2022 - 00Z Tue May 17 2022

...Severe thunderstorms expected from parts of the
Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley on Sunday...

...Persistent record-breaking heat forecast across the Southwest and
southern Plains through early next week...

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms could pose an isolated severe and
flash flood risk across parts of the East and Northwest over the next few
days...

The biggest weather story through the beginning of next week is
anticipated to be related to the severe weather potential on Sunday. An
approaching cold front is forecast to collide with a warm and moist
airmass situated over the Mid-South, leading to a developing complex of
thunderstorms near the Mid-Missouri Valley. These storms are then expected
to progress south and east through the evening hours into the Ozarks,
Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. Damaging wind gusts are the
greatest threat in this area, with large hail and tornadoes also possible.
For this reason, SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe
thunderstorms across southern Missouri, southeast Kansas, northeast
Oklahoma, and northern Arkansas on Sunday. Thunderstorms will also be
capable of intense rainfall rates, which may lead to isolated instances of
flash flooding.

Record-breaking heat is set to continue from the Southwest to the southern
Plains underneath a stagnant upper-level ridge. Highs into the triple
digits will be widespread across the Desert Southwest and central Texas on
Sunday and Monday. Mid-to-upper 90s will extend throughout the remainder
of the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley. Luckily,
lows will dip into the upper 60s and low 70s for most locations and offer
a few hours of relief. Early season heat can be particularly dangerous,
especially if proper heat safety is not followed.

Elsewhere, a warm and humid airmass over much of the eastern U.S. will
lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the end of
the weekend before eventually a more organized area thunderstorms
approaches on Monday along a cold front. A few storms may turn severe
across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic on Monday, as well as
containing the threat of isolated flash flooding. For the Northwest,
showers and thunderstorms may also lead to areas of heavy rain and flash
flood concerns from the Blue Mountains of Oregon towards the Bitterroot
Valley of northwest Montana on Sunday.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php