Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 AM EDT Sun May 15 2022

Valid 12Z Sun May 15 2022 - 12Z Tue May 17 2022

...Severe thunderstorms likely across Mississippi Valley and Midwest
today; East Coast on Monday...

...Potentially record breaking heat to persist across Southwest and
Southern Plains over next couple of days...

...Unsettled weather over Northwest and Great Plains...

Showers and thunderstorms will focus along a cold front slowly tracking
across the Midwest this afternoon/evening. Some thunderstorms will be
severe, particularly over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and
eastern Central/Southern Plains where a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms is in effect. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the
primary threats, especially within the Enhanced Risk area which
encompasses parts of southern Missouri, northern Arkansas, southeastern
Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma. Isolated areas of heavy rain leading to
flash flooding may occur over parts of southwestern Missouri into
northwestern Arkansas. Showers and thunderstorms will then move into the
Ohio Valley and East Coast on Monday. A Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms is in effect over parts of the interior Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic where locally damaging winds, some hail and a tornado are
possible.

Persistent upper-level ridging across the Southwest and Southern Plains
will be responsible potentially record breaking heat to visit those areas
over the next several days. Highs in the 90s and 100s will tie or break
widespread high temperature records over the Southwest, Texas, Oklahoma
and western Louisiana/Arkansas. Records are forecast to continue to be
challenged across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley heading
into mid-week as the Southwest moderates a bit on Monday. Highs over
north-central Texas are forecast to be 20-30 degrees above average today
and Tuesday. Relatively warm, dry and breezy conditions will contribute to
an elevated fire weather risk over parts of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle
today and eastern New Mexico on Monday.

Shortwave energy moving across the West will spawn showers and
thunderstorms across parts of the Northwest this afternoon/evening. The
associated low pressure system will strengthen as it enters the foothills
of the Rockies on Monday afternoon, spreading more showers and
thunderstorm activity into the Front Range and Great Plains. Severe
thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeastern Nebraska,
northern Kansas, northwestern Missouri and southwestern Iowa.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php