Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022

Valid 12Z Mon May 16 2022 - 12Z Wed May 18 2022

...Severe weather and flash flooding concerns shift to the East today...

...Record warm temperatures in the South this week...

...Fire weather risk for parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains...

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to spread into the East today along
a cold front. Some thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where
Slight Risks (level 2/5) are in effect, may be severe. Hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from any severe
thunderstorms, especially within the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area,
extending from eastern New York into northern Virginia. Heavy rainfall may
develop over parts of the interior Northeast. A Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall is in effect over northeastern New York and much of Vermont as a
result. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected to move across
eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle this afternoon with the threat
of large hail and severe wind gusts.

Attention shifts westward on Tuesday as a new system emerges over the
Plains. A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect over parts of
the Central Plains and Missouri Valley where large hail and damaging winds
will be the primary threats. Additionally, there's a marginal risk of
heavy rainfall developing over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley as shortwave energy rotates through the region and a
quasi-stationary front stalls out.

Upper-level ridging over the Southwest and Southern Plains will lead to a
prolonged heat wave for much of the South over the next several days.
Widespread temperature records are forecast to be tied or broken in the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley through mid-week before parts
of the Southeast get in on the record breaking action late this week. High
temperatures will be in the 90s and 100s for consecutive days across much
of Texas which will pose a threat to those who are sensitive to heat or
have poor air ventilation where they reside. Cold air begins to spill into
the Northwest behind a powerful cold front beginning on Wednesday.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php