Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022

Valid 12Z Tue May 17 2022 - 12Z Thu May 19 2022

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding likely over portions of the
Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley and Central Plains today and Wednesday...

...Record breaking heat to persist across the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley through midweek...

...Critical Fire risk for parts of west-central Texas today...

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread across the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley today as a low
pressure system glides through the area. Some locally heavy rainfall
leading to flash flooding are possible along a quasi-stationary warm front
that will slide across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri. Severe
thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, wind damage and a few
tornadoes are expected to materialize across portions of the Central
Plains and Lower/Middle Missouri Valley this afternoon and evening. An
enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect for parts of
southeastern Nebraska, northeastern Kansas northwestern Missouri and
southwestern Iowa. Meanwhile, relatively warm, dry and windy conditions
will contribute to a critical fire weather threat over west-central Texas
today.

Showers and thunderstorms move into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday. Fortunately, severe thunderstorm and flash flooding risks will
be marginal. A new system will arrive over the Pacific Northwest on
Wednesday morning, spreading rain over the coast and lower elevations as
well as light mountain snow over the northern Cascades. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms develop over the Northern Rockies and the foothills
of Montana by Wednesday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, scattered to
isolated thunderstorm activity may also materialize over parts of the
western Central/Southern Plains.

Record breaking heat is expected to expand beneath a ridge of high
pressure situated over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley
through late week. Widespread high temperature records are forecast to be
tied or broken in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana through Thursday. Highs in
Texas are likely to be in the 90s and 100s over the next several days,
which will pose a health risk to those who are heat sensitive or are
without adequate air conditioning. There will be little relief over night
when lows will only drop into the upper 60s and 70s. High temperatures
will be between 20-30 degrees above average for much of central
Texas/Oklahoma during this period.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php