Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022

Valid 00Z Wed May 18 2022 - 00Z Fri May 20 2022

...Strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding likely over portions
of central Plains to the mid-Upper Mississippi Valley into tonight, then
re-develop over the northern Plains/upper Midwest by Thursday...

...Record breaking heat to persist across the southern Plains, expanding
eastward into the Southeast by Thursday...

...Critical Fire risk continues over the southern High Plains into
west-central Texas...

A low pressure system interacting with a pair of frontal systems will be
the main focus for showers and thunderstorms to develop and track across
the central Plains toward the Midwest into tonight.  Areas most favorable
to severe thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and possible flash flooding will
be from eastern Nebraska and Kansas into northern Missouri.  The highest
threat of strong thunderstorms and heavy rain will shift east into the
Ohio Valley and the central Appalachians on Wednesday as the low pressure
center tracks across the lower Great Lakes and a warm front lifts across
the region.  This system is forecast to weaken further on Thursday, with a
general area of showers and thunderstorms sliding across the Northeast,
while scattered thunderstorms move across the Mid-Atlantic.

Moisture ahead of a rapidly intensifying low pressure system is forecast
to reach the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday morning.  A new round of
coastal/lower elevation rain as well as mountain snow over the northern
Cascades is forecast to persist into Thursday.  The rain/snow is expected
to quickly reach into the northern Rockies through Wednesday night as a
cold upper trough arrives, triggering the formation of a low pressure
system over the northern High Plains into the Canadian Prairies.  Showers
and thunderstorms will likely expand quickly across the northern Plains on
Thursday with the chance of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain shifting
from the northern Plains toward the Midwest by the afternoon.

Meanwhile, relatively warm, persistently dry and windy conditions will
contribute to a critical fire weather threat over the southern High Plains 
into west-central Texas.

Record breaking heat is expected to expand beneath a ridge of high
pressure situated over the southern Plains toward the Southeast through
late week. Widespread high temperature records are forecast to be tied or
broken in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana through Thursday. Highs in Texas
are likely to be in the 90s and 100s over the next several days, which
will pose a health risk to those who are heat sensitive or are without
adequate air conditioning. There will be little relief over night when
lows will only drop into the upper 60s and 70s. High temperatures will be
between 20-30 degrees above average for much of central Texas/Oklahoma
during this period.

Kong

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php