Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

Valid 00Z Sun May 22 2022 - 00Z Tue May 24 2022

...Record heat in the East; record cold in the Rockies...

...Severe storms and excessive rainfall are possible from the Northeast to
the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Snow over portions of the Northern/Central Rockies...

On Saturday night, a front extending from the Northeast to the Southern
Plains will move eastward off the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast by
Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the
boundary through Monday.

The front and moisture pooling along the boundary will aid in
destabilizing the atmosphere. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast to the Southern Plains
through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. There will be record heat in the Northeast and record cold over
parts of the Rockies.

In addition, heavy rain develops along the boundary from the Ohio Valley
to the Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley to the
Lower Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

As the front moves eastward, the threat of severe thunderstorms also
moves. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Northeast and a Marginal Risk extending from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast/Central Gulf Coast on Sunday into Monday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In
addition, there is a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall associated with
most of the front from the Northeast to the Southeast on Sunday into
Monday morning. However, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over portions of the Central Gulf Coast from Sunday into Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.

The front lingers over the southern Mid-Atlantic on Monday, roughly
westward to the Southern Plains and Southern Rockies. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue over the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast/Central
Gulf Coast. There will also be a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
the area. Furthermore, moisture will surge northward over the Southern
Plains into the Central Plains. Upper-level impulses will move across the
region on Monday to trigger showers and thunderstorms. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms
over south-central Texas and a second area over central Kansas into
Oklahoma and parts of the Texas Panhandle on Monday. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy will aid in developing rain with embedded
thunderstorms and higher elevation snow over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and the Northern Intermountain Region, mainly as a diurnal
event. Additionally, rain will develop over parts of the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley through late Saturday night. However, snow
will develop over parts of the Central Rockies and continue through Sunday
morning. On Sunday, higher elevation snow and lower elevation rain will
develop over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies through Monday morning.
As moisture moves over the Plains, rain and thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Upper Midwest through Monday evening.

Elsewhere, fire weather concerns are expected to continue for portions of
New Mexico, where dry and windy conditions may continue to promote
conditions favorable for rapid-fire growth. However, on Sunday, the SPC
issued a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of Arizona and New
Mexico.

Ziegenfelder




Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php