Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
209 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

Valid 12Z Mon May 23 2022 - 12Z Wed May 25 2022

...Heavy rain and flash flooding possible over portions of the Southeast
and Southern Plains today...

...Increasingly warm/hot with fire conditions for the Sacramento Valley
early this week...

A slowing cold front over the Southeast will become stationary during the
day today as an area of low pressure rides along it through Alabama and
Georgia. With plenty of moisture out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
showers and some embedded thunderstorms will produce areas of heavy rain
that could lead to runoff and/or flash flooding concerns, especially over
urban areas. Rainfall will spread northeastward through the southern
Appalachians and into the Carolinas into a cooler air mass north of the
boundary. There, temperatures will be below normal in a stark change to
the past few days where many record highs were observed. Highs will only
be in the 60s and 70s from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes and
into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today which is about 5-10 degrees
below normal. Farther west, even cooler temperatures are expected over the
Central Plains where highs may only reach into the low to mid 50s with
periods of rain. Over Texas and Oklahoma, increasing moisture into an
unstable air mass will favor showers and thunderstorms, some of which may
be severe and also could produce locally heavy rainfall.

On Tuesday, the stationary boundary over the southern Rockies/Four Corners
will finally move eastward as an area of low pressure organizes over the
Texas Panhandle. Severe weather is again a possibility over Texas, but
shifted eastward toward the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. Rainfall will
expand eastward as well, with a heavy rain/flash flooding threat extending
from eastern Texas northward to the southern Missouri River Valley.
Temperatures will again be well below normal over the Central Plains,
remaining in the 50s. With high pressure slipping eastward through the
Northeast, areas of the Mid-Atlantic may see a cool day with showers on
northeasterly winds off the still cold Atlantic Ocean. Over California,
temperatures will start to warm in earnest on Tuesday, rising to around
100F in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. With dry air in place over
the region, relative humidity values will be quite low. Modest to strong
winds will increase fire conditions for the region.

Fracasso


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php