Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022

Valid 12Z Tue May 24 2022 - 12Z Thu May 26 2022

...Heavy Rain, Flash Flooding, and Severe Weather possible from the
Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South...

...A Fire Weather Threat to continue across portions of the Southwest and
northern California...

...Record highs possible in portions of California...

An area of low pressure near the Texas/Oklahoma border today will slowly
lift out of the Southern Plains tomorrow and eventually move into the
Great Lakes region by early Thursday. Southerly flow out of the Gulf ahead
of the cold front arcing back across Texas will provide sufficient
moisture in a primed atmosphere to support showers and thunderstorms each
day. Some storms may be severe, with a threat of hail, damaging winds, and
a few tornadoes. In addition, heavy rain is possible in many thunderstorms
which may result in runoff issues and a flash flooding threat, especially
in urban areas. Some thunderstorms and heavy rain may continue overnight
as well from the northwest to southeast across Texas tonight into
Wednesday morning. On Wednesday, the risk of severe weather will shift
into the Midwest southward through the Mid-South to the Gulf Coast.

A more modest area of rain over the Central Plains will push toward the
northeast today into Wednesday, reaching the Great Lakes tomorrow morning.
Temperatures will be chilly from Colorado eastward to the Corn Belt where
readings may only top out around 50 to near 60, which is about 15-25
degrees below normal. Farther west, much of California away from the
immediate coast will see well above normal temperatures today and
Wednesday, when the heat will extend into Oregon, Nevada, and Arizona.
Some locations could see record highs around 100-105F through the
Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys.

The hot/dry weather will also increase the fire weather danger across the
northern Sacramento Valley where Red Flag Warnings will be in effect
Monday morning through Wednesday morning. Over much of western New Mexico,
breezy conditions with low relative humidity values support a Critical
Fire Risk today.

Fracasso

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php