Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

Valid 00Z Wed May 25 2022 - 00Z Fri May 27 2022

...Heavy rain and thunderstorms with the risk for flooding will move from
the central to eastern U.S....

...Heat will expand over the West with some fire weather risk for portions
of the Southwest...

...Cooler weather remains over the Mid-Atlantic after record-breaking heat
as central portions of the country also see below normal temperatures...

A low pressure system over the Southern Plains will move northward through
the Mississippi Valley during the short-term forecast period. A large
warm-sector will expand over the Mississippi Valley and locations east as
a warm front lifts north, with a slow moving cold front traling the system
helping to promote widespread showers and thunderstorms. The greatest risk
for flash flooding will be on Wednesday with a Moderate Risk for Excessive
Rainfall in effect for northern portions of the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Mid-South. Thunderstorms along the cold front are forecast to
continuously build and move over areas that have recently seen heavy
rainfall. A broader Sligh Risk is in effect from southeast Texas through
the Lower Mississippi Valley where rainfall totals between 2-3 inches,
locally higher, are possible. A Slight Risk is also in effect for portions
of the Southern Appalachians Thursday as storms along the front could
again poduce up to 1-3 inches of rainfall. Outside of the highlighted
areas at greater risk for flooding, widespread heavy rainfall is also
exected from the Gulf Coast northward through the Ohio Valley. Some severe
weather is also possible with broad Marginal Risks (level 1/5) from the
Storm Prediction Center in effect from the Mississippi Valley Wednesday
spreading further eastard into the the Ohio Valley and Southeast Thursday.
Isolated instances of hail and gusty winds are anticipated, as well as a
low tornado risk.

Meanwhile, in the West, hot temperatures will expand across the region
under the influence of an upper-level ridge. Record-breaking heat is
possible in central California Wednesday where forecast high tempeartures
in the low-100s are at or above previous daily records. Much above normal
tempeartures are forecast for the Great Basin Thursday with highs in the
mid-80s to low 90s. Highs 5-10 degrees above normal can be expected
outside of these areas. Dry conditions are also expected, with the
combination of very low humidity and gusty winds over portions of New
Mexico and far west Texas Wednesday leading to an Elevated Risk of Fire
Weather from the Storm Prediction Center. The pattern will change for the
Northwest late in the period Thursday evening as showers expand over the
area ahead of an approaching Pacific system.

After record-breaking heat over the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic, a
lingering low presure system off the North Carolina coast will keep
tempeartures cooler and scattered showers possible. High temperatures in
the low 60s Tuesday will moderate some by reaching the low 70s by
Thursday, but will remain around 10 degrees below normal. The rest of the
East Coast will be around normal with tempeartures in the 60s and 70s for
New England and the 80s for the Southeast and Florida. Additionally, in
the wake of the eastward moving cold front over the central/eastern U.S.,
cooler, below normal temperatures will spread eastward through the Plains
Wednesday and the Mississippi Valley Thursday. With the exception of far
south Texas, highs Wednesday will generally be in the low 60s to mid-70s
for the Southern Plains and in the 50s from the Central Plains northward
to the Upper Midwest, about 10-20 degrees below normal for this time of
year. These cooler highs will move eastward into the Mississippi Valley
Thursday with temperatures generally in the 60s and low 70s.

Putnam

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php