Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

Valid 00Z Fri May 27 2022 - 00Z Sun May 29 2022

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central Gulf Coast through Friday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe storms over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Central Gulf Coast and the Southeast through
Friday morning...

... There is a Slight Risk of severe storms and excessive rainfall over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic from Friday to Saturday morning...

On Thursday night, a front extending from the Great Lakes, Middle
Mississippi Valley to the Central Gulf Coast will move eastward to the
East Coast by Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of the boundary through Saturday. In addition, the front and
moisture pooling along the boundary will destabilize the atmosphere.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Central Gulf Coast and the
Southeast through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms develop along the boundary from the
Midwest to the Central Gulf Coast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over the Central Gulf Coast through
Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of
flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers through Friday morning. In addition, Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over portions of the Central Gulf Coast,
Central/Southern Appalachians, and a second area over parts of the Upper
Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley through Friday morning, too. Again,
the associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

On Friday, the front continues to inch eastward. As a result, showers and
thunderstorms will develop from the Northeast to the Southeast and Gulf
Coast. In addition, there will be severe thunderstorms associated with the
boundary. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Saturday
morning. Furthermore, heavy rain will be associated with the
thunderstorms. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Saturday morning. On Saturday,
showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
Coast and the Florida Peninsula.         

Additionally, by Friday evening, a front and associated upper-level trough
will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest, moving eastward to the
Northern High Plains/Great Basin. The trough is relatively robust.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Pacific Northwest/Northern Intermountain Region through
Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat for tornadoes.

On Friday, the showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the
Northern High Plains and Northern Plains. By Saturday, the front moves to
the Upper Mississippi Valley and the threat of severe thunderstorms
develops over the Upper Midwest. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and
a portion of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php