Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

Valid 12Z Fri May 27 2022 - 12Z Sun May 29 2022

...There will be a threat of heavy rainfall, some areas of flash flooding,
and severe weather across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast today...

...Much colder and unsettled weather is expected across the Intermountain
West this weekend including the potential for higher elevation snowfall...

...Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern
Plains...

...Critical fire weather concerns exist across much of the Southwest and
through the Southern Rockies...

A rather active weather pattern will be on tap across the country today
and for the weekend ahead. A cold front will be very slowly advancing east
toward the East Coast today which should then gradually begin to edge
offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Sunday as a weak area of
high pressure builds in across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. However,
this front will be interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass
advancing up across the coastal plain, and should result in numerous areas
of heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
Locally a few inches of rain will be possible which may result in some
areas of flash flooding. Additionally, there will be a concern for some
severe weather, and some of the thunderstorms today from the Carolinas
northward into the Mid-Atlantic may result in damaging winds and a couple
of tornadoes. Areas of showers and some locally heavy rainfall will be
expected across parts of New York and New England too for today and on
Saturday, but the East should gradually dry out by the end of the weekend.

Meanwhile, a series of cold fronts will be advancing inland off the
Pacific Ocean today and through the weekend which will bring a trend
toward much cold temperatures and unsettled weather for much of the
Intermountain West. This will especially be the case for the Pacific
Northwest and the northern Rockies where there will be plenty of shower
activity and some locally heavy rainfall. Sufficient cold air is expected
to arrive by Saturday night and Sunday for there to be some locally heavy
snowfall for portions of the northern Rockies, and some of the higher
peaks of northwest Wyoming, southwest Montana and central Idaho involving
the Tetons, Absoroka, and Sawtooth mountains respectfully may see 1 to 2
feet of snowfall to round out the weekend. Some beneficial rains will also
begin to spread out across portions of the northern High Plains as as
series of low pressure centers eject east out of the Rockies. However,
there will be also be a concern for severe weather locally across the
northern Plains as these cold fronts arrive this weekend. Some of the
thunderstorms across the region may produce large hail and damaging winds.
Temperatures behind the frontal passages will be below normal, and some
parts of northern Great Basin will likely see high temperatures as much as
15 to 25 degrees below normal by Sunday.

Ahead of the unsettled and much colder weather across the West this
weekend, will be hot and dry conditions across areas of the central and
southern Plains where high temperatures will warm well into the 90s and
will locally exceed 100 degrees. Generally areas of west Texas and far
eastern New Mexico will be the hottest, but these areas will also be quite
dry which will set the stage regionally for elevated to critical fire
weather concerns. In fact, the wildfire danger will encompass a rather
large area with an emphasis on the southern Rockies and through much of
the Southwest U.S. going through the weekend. Very low relative humidity,
locally hot temperatures, and gusty winds will be in place and these
conditions will be conducive for locally driving a high threat of wildfire
activity.

Orrison

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php