Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022

Valid 12Z Sat May 28 2022 - 12Z Mon May 30 2022

...There will be locally a threat of heavy rain and some strong
thunderstorms across parts of the Northeast today...

...Much colder and unsettled weather will arrive across the Intermountain
West this weekend which will include a threat of heavy snowfall for the
higher elevations of the Northern Rockies...

...Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest through the weekend...

...Critical fire weather concerns continue across much of the Southwest
and through the Southern Rockies...

A cold front will be very slowly advancing toward the East Coast today and
then offshore on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. However, multiple waves of low pressure will be
impacting the Northeast today and there should be areas of showers
thunderstorms impacting parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England
which will result in some areas of locally heavy rainfall. An isolated
threat of flash flooding will be possible and some of the thunderstorms
may be strong and capable of producing gusty winds. Drier and more
tranquil weather will follow on Sunday and linger through early next week.

Meanwhile, a series of cold fronts and waves of low pressure will continue
to move inland off the Pacific Ocean and will be traversing the
Intermountain West through the weekend which will bring much colder
temperatures and unsettled weather. This will especially be the case for
the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Basin, and the northern Rockies
where widespread shower activity and some locally heavy rainfall is
expected. As an upper-level trough deepens over the West this weekend and
early next week, the snow levels will be dropping, and rain is expected to
change over to heavy snow for the higher terrain of the northern Rockies.
In fact, some of the higher terrain of the Sawtooth, Absoroka, and Big
Horn mountains will see locally significant snowfall. The heaviest amounts
will likely be over the Absoroka range involving areas of southwest
Montana where as much as 2 to 3 feet of snow appears likely. All of the
rain and snow that does impact the West this weekend will be very
beneficial given the widespread and long-term drought conditions that
continue for many areas. Temperatures this weekend behind the frontal
passages will be below normal, and some parts of northern Great Basin will
likely see high temperatures as much as
15 to 25 degrees below normal by Sunday.

Gradually the energy crossing the Intermountain West will also eject out
across the northern Plains and the upper Midwest through the end of the
weekend and into Monday, and this will yield a concern for severe weather.
Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected, and some
of the thunderstorms over the next couple of days will be capable of
producing damaging winds and large hail. On Sunday and Sunday night, the
severe weather threat will be more focused and concentrated from eastern
Nebraska through southwest Minnesota and the Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted this area under an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms which
will include a concern for a few tornadoes.

Ahead of the much colder weather across the West, hot and dry conditions
will be expected across areas of the central and southern Plains where
high temperatures will warm well into the 90s and will locally exceed 100
degrees today. Some of these temperatures will be as much as 20 to 25
degrees above average. The hot and dry weather will also be a key player
in driving elevated to critical fire weather concerns. In fact, the
wildfire danger will encompass a rather large area again with an emphasis
on the southern Rockies and through much of the Southwest U.S. going
through the weekend. Very low relative humidity and gusty winds will be in
place and these conditions will be conducive for locally driving a high
threat of wildfire activity.

Orrison

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php