Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

Valid 00Z Sun May 29 2022 - 00Z Tue May 31 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northeast through Sunday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe storms over parts of the Plains and
Upper Mississippi Valley Saturday evening through Monday morning...

...There is a threat of heavy snowfall for the highest elevations of the
Northern Rockies...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Southwest/Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains...

A deep upper-level trough will develop over the northwestern portion of
the country from Saturday night through Sunday. The associated front will
produce showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the
boundary over the Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Saturday evening
through Monday morning. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and a
second area over parts of the Southern High Plains through Sunday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.
However, there will be an increased threat of severe wind gusts over 65
knots over both regions.

The severe thunderstorm threat increases and moves to the Upper
Mississippi Valley and the Northern/Central Plains on Sunday. Therefore,
the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley from Sunday into
Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. In addition, there will be an increased threat of severe wind
gusts over 65 knots and two-inch diameter hail. Furthermore, there will be
a threat of excessive rainfall over the Upper Midwest. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley from Sunday through
Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of
flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy
rain.

The front will move eastward slightly on Monday, as does the threat of
severe thunderstorms. Therefore, on Monday, the SPC has issued an Enhanced
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an increased threat of
excessive rainfall as more moisture surges into the region. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, overnight Saturday, a front over the Northeast Coast moves
offshore by Sunday morning. As a result, there will be showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast associated with the front,
ending by late Saturday night. Some of the thunderstorms will produce
heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Northeast. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable. Further, onshore flow off the
Atlantic will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of
Florida through Monday.

Moreover, as the upper-level trough builds over the Northwest, rain will
develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California and
extend eastward to the Northern Rockies. As a result, there will be light
wet snow over some of the highest elevations of Cascades to the Northern
Rockies from Saturday evening into Sunday. As the upper-level trough
deepens, the snow levels will lower. Therefore, heavy wet snow will
develop over the higher elevations of the Northern Intermountain Region
and the Northern Rockies from Sunday evening into Monday.

Finally, there is a Critical Risk of fire weather over the
Southwest/Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains from Saturday evening
into Monday morning. The threat is due to strong gusty winds, dry fuels,
and low humidity.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php