Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022

Valid 12Z Sun May 29 2022 - 12Z Tue May 31 2022

...Drier and pleasant weather expected for much of the East to round out
the Memorial Day weekend...

...Colder temperatures, areas of heavy rain, and heavy higher elevation
snowfall will be expected through Monday across northern areas of the
Intermountain West...

...Severe weather will be a concern across portions of the Central and
Northern Plains, and the Upper Midwest through early next week...

...Critical fire weather concerns will remain in place across the
Southwest, Southern Rockies, and the Southern High Plains...

Dry and generally tranquil weather will be the story for the remainder of
the Memorial Day weekend for much of the East as high pressure along the
East Coast begins to edge offshore and allows for southerly flow from the
Gulf of Mexico to return. This will lead to an increase in heat and
humidity with time, and by Memorial Day, temperatures will be above normal
across much of the eastern half of the nation with many areas seeing
temperatures reaching the upper 80s to the lower 90s. One exception will
be northern New England given proximity of a cold front slowly sinking
south from southeast Canada and this will keep temperatures here a bit
cooler. Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the Florida Peninsula and there may be some locally heavy rainfall across
this region going through the remainder of the weekend.

The weather across the Intermountain West will be considerably more
unsettled by comparison to the East as multiple cold fronts and waves of
low pressure advance off to the east in response to a gradually deepening
upper trough. This will bring much colder temperatures and locally heavy
precipitation today for the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Basin,
and the northern Rockies. Widespread shower activity and locally heavy
rainfall is expected, but as the upper-level trough deepens over the West
today through Monday, the snow levels will be dropping and this will set
the stage for rain changing over to areas of heavy snow for especially the
higher terrain of the northern Rockies. In fact, some of the higher
terrain of the Sawtooth, Absoroka, and Big Horn mountains will see some
significant snowfall. The heaviest amounts will likely be over the
Absoroka and Big Horn mountains where as much as 1 to 3 feet of snow
appears likely going through Monday night. Temperatures across areas of
the northern Great Basin and the northern Rockies will be as much as 15 to
25 degrees below normal going through Memorial Day.

All of this energy associated with aforementioned upper trough crossing
the Intermountain West will be ejecting east out across the northern
Plains and the Upper Midwest going through the remainder of the Memorial
Day weekend holiday, and this will yield a concern for areas of severe
weather. Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the region, and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an
Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and
northern Plains, and the Upper Mississippi Valley today and Monday. Some
thunderstorms are expected to produce large hail, damaging winds, and a
few tornadoes.

Temperatures across the central and southern Plains will be quite hot
ahead of these cold fronts crossing the West with high temperatures today
reaching well into the 90s and locally exceeding 100 degrees. The heat
will begin to break down a bit for Memorial Day as the fronts begin
crossing the Plains. However, the very warm to hot conditions more broadly
across the southern High Plains, southern Rockies and Southwest for today
and Monday will also maintain elevated to critical fire weather concerns.
This will be driven largely by low relative humidities and gusty winds.
Some improvement is expected though by Tuesday as cooler temperatures
arrive from the north behind a cold frontal passage.

Orrison

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php