Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022

Valid 00Z Mon May 30 2022 - 00Z Wed Jun 01 2022

...There is an Enhance to Moderate Risk of severe storms over parts of the
Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening through Tuesday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley...

...There is a threat of heavy snowfall for the highest elevations of the
Northern Rockies...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Southwest/Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains...

A front extending from Upper Mississippi Valley roughly southwestward to
the Southwest/Southern California will slowly move eastward to the Great
Lakes to the Southern Plains by Tuesday. The boundary will destabilize the
atmosphere as moisture pools along the front, producing showers and
thunderstorms over the Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening through
Tuesday morning. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an increased
threat of severe wind gusts over 65 knots and two-inch diameter hail.
There is also a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Upper Midwest. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of
flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy
rain.

The severe thunderstorm threat increases on Monday. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there
will be an increased threat of EF2 †EF5 tornadoes, severe wind gusts
over 65 knots or greater, and two-inch diameter hail. Furthermore, there
will be an increased threat of excessive rainfall over the Upper Midwest
and Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley and a second area over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Central Plains from Monday through Tuesday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

As the front moves eastward, the threat of severe thunderstorms, likewise,
moves eastward. Therefore, on Tuesday, the SPC issued an Enhanced Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and
Central Plains. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. The threat of excessive rainfall decreased to a Marginal Risk
over parts of the Western Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valleys and the
Central/Southern Plains. The associated heavy rain will create localized
areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with
heavy rain.

Meanwhile, overnight Sunday, the upper-level trough deepens over the
Northwest, developing rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the
Pacific Northwest to the Northern/Central Rockies. As a result, heavy wet
snow will develop over the higher elevations of the Northern Intermountain
Region and the Northern Rockies from Sunday evening into Tuesday. However,
the rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest will start to end late Monday
afternoon and end by Tuesday morning.

Next, there is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Southwest/Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains from Sunday evening
into Tuesday morning. The threat is due to strong gusty winds, dry fuels,
and low humidity.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php